Family! Watching ETH's operation last night made my palms sweat—this afternoon it was still hovering around 4400, but then at 20:30, the U.S. CPI data hit, and it shot straight from 4405 to 4604, a 200-dollar surge in 1 hour! However, it was then pulled down a bit by oil data, and now it's stuck at 4592. Many people are asking me: 'Is this surge just a 'one-day tour' driven by news? Can we break 4800 tonight? Will it fall back to 4200 again?' Don't worry, let’s combine technical analysis + news and break it down clearly!

Let's first talk about last night: the surge was indeed driven by news, but it wasn't accidental!

Yesterday at 20:30, the U.S. July unadjusted CPI year-on-year data was released—2.7%! Down 0.1% from the previous value of 2.8%. Although it met expectations, this is a signal that U.S. inflation has cooled for the second consecutive month! You should know that the Federal Reserve is focused on inflation, and with inflation dropping, the market bets on 'interest rate hikes slowing' or even 'rate cuts next year', money naturally flows from banks to the stock market and crypto circle. ETH, as the 'second' in the crypto market, surged from 4405 to 4604 along with its big brother Bitcoin, reflecting a typical 'news stimulation + emotional resonance'.

However, the subsequent U.S. crude oil import data was slightly bearish, causing oil prices to drop, which pulled ETH down a bit, but this pullback seems more like digesting profit-taking—after all, it rose 200 dollars in 1 hour, so some people want to cash out, so don't panic, this is a normal adjustment.

Now let's look at the technical side: ETH is currently in a bullish accumulation phase, and 4640 is the key!

Open the 1-hour K-line chart, the current ETH price is 4592, just below the resistance level of 4640, with two support levels below: the first at 4435 and the second at 4165. Let's first look at the indicators:

MACD: The DIF line crosses above the DEA line, forming a 'golden cross', and the red bars are still expanding, indicating that the bullish momentum is increasing, which is a typical 'strong bullish momentum' signal;

Trading volume: When it surged earlier, the trading volume clearly spiked, indicating that real money is coming in, not 'fake pumps';

Position: It just broke through the 4500 level, with less than 50 dollars to the resistance level of 4640. If it can break through, the next step is to challenge the previous high of 4800; if it drops below 4435, we will consider moving towards 4200.

Can we break 4800 tonight? The key depends on these two signals!

What the market is most concerned about now is: Can ETH ride the momentum to reach 4800 tonight? To be honest—there's a good chance, but it depends on the combination of news + technical analysis!

Bullish support:

The cooling of U.S. CPI is a solid fact, and the market will continue to focus on statements from Federal Reserve officials and European economic data. As long as there are no sudden hawkish statements, risk assets will have upward momentum;

Technical breakthrough: ETH is currently stuck at the 4640 resistance level. If it can break out with significant volume tonight, for example, with an hourly trading volume larger than yesterday, then 4800 is a done deal; if it remains stuck below 4640, it may need to consolidate for two days before attempting to break out.

Lastly, let me say something heartfelt: Don't be greedy, and don't panic!

In the short term, ETH is in a safe zone between 4435-4640, and the probability of dropping below 4435 is low, as there is strong support below, but to break 4800 requires a combination of 'news + volume'. In terms of operation:

For those looking to chase highs, wait for a breakout above 4640 before entering, and set a stop loss at 4580; if it breaks, withdraw;

For those looking to buy low, you can gradually accumulate near 4435, aiming first at 4640, and if it breaks, then look at 4800;

For friends with heavy positions, it's advisable to reduce some holdings near 4640, take profits in hand, and don't bet everything on one direction!

Lastly, let me remind you: there are no 'absolutes' in the crypto circle, but combining 'technical analysis + news' can help you avoid 80% of the pitfalls. Keep a close eye on the 4640 position tonight; if it breaks, follow along; if it doesn't, just wait—we'll proceed steadily and earn safely!

Family, do you think we can break 4800 tonight? Let's discuss your thoughts in the comments! If you find this useful, give it a like, follow me, and we’ll continue to discuss real-time market trends!

There are no gods in the crypto circle, only smart people who can read signals.@财月女神 The articles don't boast or make empty promises, just teach you practical survival skills. Follow@财月女神 , daily strategy updates, know in advance!