Is your hand shaking while watching the market now? At 20:30 tonight, a global financial market 'data bomb' is about to explode - the US initial jobless claims + July PPI year-on-year rate! And XRP, the 'sensitive coin' in the crypto world, is currently stuck at the 'cliff edge' of $3.21: climbing to $3.5 is heaven, breaking below $3 is hell. Tonight, it’s either takeoff or plunge, with no middle option!
News aspect: two major data points determine life and death, the 'Federal Reserve barometer' in the crypto world is here!
First, let me highlight for beginners: tonight's two data points, one is the 'employment thermometer', and the other is the 'inflation signal bomb', directly deciding whether the Federal Reserve will be 'hawkish' or 'secretly dovish' in September.
The first data - initial jobless claims. The lower this number, the 'hotter' the US job market is, people have money to spend, and the Federal Reserve has the confidence to maintain high interest rates to 'harvest global chives'; conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, it indicates that companies are starting to lay off, the economy will cool down, and the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates early.
The second data - July PPI year-on-year rate. PPI is a 'leading indicator' of CPI; if PPI exceeds expectations, then next month CPI is unlikely to be low, and the expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates will rise again; if PPI is below 2.3%, or even falls below 2%, then the signal of cooling inflation will be solidified, and risk assets will be excited.
Now the question arises: these two data points are all 'unannounced' today! The market is already on edge - what the crypto world fears the most is 'uncertainty', but even more fears 'certain bearishness'. If tonight's data collectively comes out 'hawkish', the dollar index will inevitably soar, and funds will crazily flow back from the crypto world to US stocks and bonds; XRP, as a high-volatility asset, could be smashed through its support level in minutes; but if the data is 'dovish', the dollar weakens, hot money will flood into cryptocurrencies looking for 'high returns', and XRP reaching $3.5 is not a dream!
Technical aspect: XRP is stuck at the 'life and death line,' with 3 key levels determining its fate!
First, look at XRP's current K-line chart: the price is stable at $3.21, with an increase of 0.07%, and a fluctuation of 0.53%. On the surface, it seems calm, but underneath it is turbulent - the Fibonacci retracement lines have already drawn the 'life and death chessboard':
Upper pressure: the 38.2% retracement level of 3.2580 is the first hurdle, breaking through here will activate the bulls' 'offensive desire'; further up, the 50% retracement level of 3.2285 (current price is actually already close to this), and the 61.8% retracement level of 3.1990 (instead becomes short-term support? No, wait, Fibonacci retracement is usually calculated from the high point's drop, perhaps this needs to be combined with recent highs and lows - for example, assuming the recent peak in the rise is around $3.5, then the 38.2% retracement would be 3.5(1-0.382)=2.16? No, perhaps the Fibonacci in the chart is calculated from a certain low to high, such as a low of 3.1033 (100% retracement) and a high of 3.3537 (0% retracement), so the 38.2% retracement would be 3.3537-0.382(3.3537-3.1033)=3.3537-0.096≈3.2577, yes, that’s 3.2580 in the chart! So the current price of 3.21 is just below the 50% retracement level of 3.2285, belonging to the 'bull-bear balance zone.'
Key support: looking down, the 61.8% retracement level of 3.1990 is the first line of defense, breaking this would lead to the 78.6% retracement level of 3.1569, and the last 'life and death line' is $3.14 (clearly marked as 'support' in the chart) - if it breaks below $3.14, the bulls' confidence will completely collapse, and the battle to defend $3 will directly begin!
Trading volume + RSI: current trading volume is 61.6k (estimated), not very active, indicating that funds are still watching; the RSI indicator does not specify a value, but from the narrow price fluctuations, it should be in a neutral range (40-60), neither overbought nor oversold, just waiting for the data to 'light the fuse.'
In simple terms: if tonight's data is bullish, XRP must break through 3.2580 to open up upward space; if bearish, 3.14 will not hold, and $3 is the last cover!
Financial month perspective: 3.21 is the 'wolf is coming', tonight it’s either a rampage or a crash!
As a veteran in the crypto space for 7 years, I dare to say something from the heart: tonight XRP will not have a 'mild market'.
Why? Because the sentiment in the crypto world has been too 'fragile' lately - Bitcoin is repeatedly bouncing around the 60,000 mark, Ethereum struggles at 27,000, and funds are waiting for macro data to 'point the direction'. Moreover, XRP itself carries the 'regulatory bearish shadow', and retail investors love to chase highs and kill lows; once the data is released, it will inevitably trigger a stampede-like transaction.
I lean towards two scenarios:
All data is bullish: XRP will break through the key level of $3.25, the first target is the upper Bollinger Band at $3.4, and the ultimate target is the psychological level of $3.5.
Data is all bearish: the battle to defend $3 begins, if it fails, it may retrace to $2.8, but this is the range for 2024, and there may be a strong rebound.
Data divergence: initial claims are bearish but PPI is bullish, XRP will oscillate in the $3.1-$3.3 range, waiting for tomorrow's CPI data for further guidance.
But remember: regardless of bullish or bearish, don't go heavy tonight! The volatility of data-driven markets is 'second-level', hanging orders are 10 times faster than manual operations, and stop-loss must be set firmly.
Now, I have clarified XRP’s K-line chart, Fibonacci levels, support and resistance levels, and the data is also counting down. Brothers, do you think tonight's data will be 'bullish' or 'bearish'? Can XRP surge to $3.5? Or will it crash directly to $3?
Leave your judgment in the comments, brothers who get it right, tomorrow I will release a separate 'practical review' episode, teaching you how to use this method to catch the next 'data market'! Let's not miss each other, let’s witness XRP's 'life and death speed' tonight together!
Remember, there are no experts in the crypto world, only 'survivors.' Are you ready to be the 'scythe' or the 'chives'? Let me know in the comments!