ETH violently breaks through 4600! Is the surge a trap or an opportunity? Senior analyst explains in 3 minutes
1. Technical Analysis: Bulls Completely Control the Market
From the 1-hour chart, ETH broke through the key resistance level of 4600 with a large bullish candle last night, turning previous resistance into support. The Bollinger Bands are opening up, and the MACD golden cross is expanding, a typical "breakout + acceleration" pattern. The price is currently stable above the support level of 4593; as long as it does not drop below 4560 in the short term, the trend remains bullish. However, be aware that the 4600-4700 range is a dense area of trapped positions from last year, and a too aggressive rally could trigger profit-taking pressure.
2. News: Three Major Catalysts
ETF Fund Inflow: The US SEC suddenly approved ETH options trading last night, and institutional funds are starting to replenish their positions.
Layer 2 War Escalation: Coinbase announced that the daily trading volume on the Base chain has exceeded 10 billion, leading to a reevaluation of ETH's ecosystem value.
Short Sellers Squeeze: Data shows that around 4600, there are $120 million in short positions that have been liquidated, with a chain liquidation boosting the market.
3. My Opinion: Beware of the "FOMO Trap"
Although both the technical and news aspects are favorable, experienced traders in the crypto space understand: after a surge, there must be a pullback! Especially since the current funding rate is as high as 0.01%, indicating that leveraged long positions are overheated, while the basis remains negative, with futures cheaper than spot; the market is actually quietly bearish. Recommendations:
For short-term traders: Take partial profits around 4700, and buy back on a retracement to 4560.
For long-term holders: Hold onto spot positions; there is still narrative space before the Ethereum upgrade in September.
Warning for newcomers: Don't go all-in on contracts just because of a price increase; ETH's volatility is currently 30%, and a single spike could wipe you out.
Summary: This wave for ETH is driven by "news + technicals + sentiment,” but there is no myth in the crypto market of only rising without falling.
Remember: Earn money based on your knowledge; don't let market sentiment control your emotions. Follow me, and I'll help you avoid the pitfalls in the crypto space with practical charts every day!
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