"The most exciting thing in the crypto world is always the next second—You think ETH at 4600 dollars is a ceiling, but it wants to tiptoe to 4700; you think 4400 dollars is a floor, but it wants to crouch and bounce you twice. This market is all about the heartbeat!"

Current status: Bulls and bears are in a tug-of-war at 4600 dollars, like a fat person stuck in an elevator door.

Current price of ETH is 4576 dollars, the 1-hour chart looks like a mid-climb break—after surging from 3715 to 4640 dollars, the MACD red bars are shortening, and the upward momentum is slowing; the BOLL line is stuck between the middle and upper bands, struggling both ways, like a fat person trapped in an elevator, unable to move.

Key price levels: 4700 is a high pressure line, 4400 is a trampoline.

  • Ceiling at 4700 dollars: Previously peaked at 4639 dollars and then fell back, with strong sell orders stacked above 4704 dollars, like a wall.

  • Floor at 4400 dollars: The last three declines have bounced here, and the bulls see it as a 'safety cushion', but the buy order volume is not large, so don’t expect an infinite bottom.

Capital flow: Sell orders pile up above 4600, buy orders queue below 4400.

  • Sell orders are dense above 4600 dollars, bears are waiting to 'drop from a high place';

  • Buy orders queue below 4400 dollars, but the volume is insufficient, many are like 'testing the waters'—yesterday large orders repeatedly traded around 4576 dollars, like children playing hopscotch, with no direction.

BTC is leading, Gas fees set the rhythm.

  • BTC is the leader: If BTC falls below 115,000 dollars, ETH is likely to follow down.

  • Gas fees are a signal: If on-chain gas fees spike, it may lead to a rise—last week when gas fees rose to 200 gwei, ETH surged 8% in half an hour.

Qingyao's trading mantra: Buy half a position at 4700, take a walk at 4400.

Break above 4700 dollars can be lightly chased, break below 4400 dollars stop loss and observe. But note: MACD is about to narrow, if it forms a death cross, it may pull back to around 4300 dollars. Better to earn less than to be 'standing guard at a high position.'

Key detail: Before 3 PM, 4580 dollars is a watershed.

If it can't hold 4580 dollars before 3 PM today, bulls may collectively retreat—last week at a similar position, after two failed highs, it directly dropped 12%. Now at this position, it feels like a fat person standing on the edge of a cliff, one step forward is paradise, one step back is the abyss.

Do you think ETH can break 4700 dollars today, or will it first drop back to 4400 to gather strength? Place your bets in the comments, Qingyao will review at 8 PM! Follow Qingyao for the latest updates!#ETH突破4400