XRP's legal victory against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has removed a significant regulatory hurdle, sparking optimism about institutional adoption and even a potential spot XRP ETF.
After the settlement, daily trading volume surged by 208% to $12.4 billion, with analysts estimating a 95% chance of ETF approval by October 2025.
However, price trends indicate that this excitement may be cooling down. Within 24 hours up to August 12, the price of XRP dropped 4% from $3.19 to $3.13, despite reaching a high of $3.32 during the day.
A large amount of selling occurred during the 19:00 period, with a total trading volume of 73.87 million shares, indicating that large holders are locking in profits. Support remains at $3.12, but resistance remains solid at $3.27-$3.32.
Bearish fractal signal may drop 45%
Technical analysts are focusing on the concerning trend in XRP's two-week chart: the price shows a bearish divergence, making higher highs, while the relative strength index (RSI) makes lower highs. This trend is reminiscent of the market peak period in 2017-2018, after which the market experienced months of decline.
If this pattern repeats, XRP could drop towards the 50-period exponential moving average around $1.64, about 45% lower than the current price, before finding meaningful support. Short-term demand may appear around $1.90 to $2.00, but the bearish fractal indicates that momentum is waning.
Such adjustments may not necessarily end the broader bull market, but they could shake out over-leveraged traders, reshape market sentiment, and lay the groundwork for a more sustainable upward trend in the future.
Can the bulls invalidate the bearish setups for XRP?
The bulls see a different direction. XRP is testing the resistance level of $3.55, which limited the rally in 2018, and has broken out of a symmetrical triangle pattern that has existed for years.
Strong trading volume clearing $3.55 could open the door to $4.41 or even $5.68, especially if U.S. regulators approve the XRP ETF and whales shift from distribution to accumulation.
Even if short-term price trends exhibit volatility, Ripple's focus on long-term infrastructure, CBDC partnerships, and real-world asset tokenization may support underlying demand.
Nevertheless, macroeconomic uncertainty, whale selling patterns, and technical resistance remain obstacles that traders must closely monitor. Currently, XRP is at a crossroads: either confirming a bearish fractal pattern leading to a significant drop or breaking through resistance to extend the rally after the SEC meeting.