In every crypto bull market, Bitcoin often takes the lead, while altcoins pick up the baton in the latter half of the cycle. Pantera Capital believes this switch signifies the bull market entering the 'second phase'.

Looking back at history, during the 2015-2018 cycle, altcoins contributed 66% of the total market cap growth; in the 2018-2021 cycle, they contributed 55%. In the current cycle, altcoins have contributed only 35%, leaving significant room for improvement.

In the past, Bitcoin's dominance at the beginning of a bull market was primarily due to a clear regulatory environment, especially being regarded as 'digital gold'. In contrast, altcoins have long suffered from regulatory uncertainty, which has only recently begun to shift. After the new U.S. government took office, digital asset innovation received policy support:

  • (GENIUS Act) paves the way for the development of U.S.-regulated stablecoins, expected to become the core engine for global payments and settlements;

  • (CLARITY Act) clarifies the boundaries between digital commodities and securities, resolving the regulatory conflict between the SEC and CFTC.

Policy dividends are spilling over into the altcoin space, coupled with the wave of tokenization, significantly accelerating the pace of innovation:

  • Robinhood launches stock tokens based on Arbitrum, enhancing trading efficiency;

  • Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and others are exploring the issuance of stablecoins;

  • BlackRock BUIDL fund has held $2.3 billion in tokenized government bonds;

  • Figure completes over $50 billion in blockchain-native RWA transactions;

  • Ondo plans to launch over 1,000 tokenized stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ.

📈 Ethereum is the biggest beneficiary

Currently, 54% of the global $260 billion stablecoin market cap is issued on Ethereum; among on-chain government bonds, 73% are deployed on Ethereum. Since hitting bottom in April 2025, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has rebounded by 103%. Wall Street is reassessing Ethereum's strategic position, with demand continuing to soar.

Pantera assesses that the second phase of the bull market has fully commenced, and altcoins may welcome an explosive window.