In recent years, the prediction market has quietly welcomed a new round of revival. Unlike previous short-lived booms, this time, its scale and coverage are significantly expanding—whether in politics, economics, sports, or weather and drug approvals, almost all events can become trading targets.

Three driving forces behind the revival

1️⃣ Rise of the platform

Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have maintained monthly trading volumes in the tens of billions of dollars, particularly during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, where the popularity of election-related markets verified the enormous demand for event-driven trading.

2️⃣ Regulatory easing

In October 2024, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia lifted restrictions on Kalshi's election contracts, and Robinhood launched its election market in the same month. A clear regulatory environment has accelerated the pace of financial innovation.

3️⃣ Growth of the speculative crowd

The median age of first-time homebuyers has risen to 38, and retail investors' demand for high-volatility, high-return products is increasing. The trading volume of zero-day options has approached two-thirds of the average daily total, and the trend of 'financial market TikTokification' is evident—people are eager to bet on more things, leaving no market overlooked.

Core characteristics of future prediction markets

High-leverage play

Users hope to make small bets with big returns, with potential to drive participation enthusiasm through events ranging from intraday, half-day to minute-level betting. Similar to the 'parlay betting' model, it allows users to correctly predict multiple outcomes at once, amplifying the return multiples.

High-frequency events

Platforms need to have a sufficient number of markets with a high update frequency to cultivate users' continuous participation habits. Experience shows that high-frequency, high-participation projects can significantly enhance retention and profitability.

High-value outcomes

Some events, although not common, have extremely high informational value, such as presidential elections, FDA drug approvals, and climate predictions, attracting significant capital and deep liquidity. In contrast, entertainment gossip markets, while interesting, struggle to attract large capital.

Trend outlook

Prediction markets will combine informational value with entertainment attributes, providing users with new gameplay. In the future, we may see explosive expansion of trading targets, from international situations to niche events, from weather changes to corporate earnings reports—truly 'everything is predictable.'