Author: Erik Lowe, Head of Content at Pantera Capital; Translated by: Golden Finance
Bitcoin often leads the bull market cycle, while altcoins lag in the early stages. As the cycle progresses, altcoins typically gain momentum and outperform Bitcoin towards the end of the cycle. We refer to this as the 'first phase' and 'second phase' of the bull market.
Importantly, in the past two cycles, altcoins contributed the majority of value creation. During the 2015-2018 cycle, altcoins accounted for 66% of the total market capitalization growth in cryptocurrency. In the 2018-2021 cycle, altcoins contributed 55%.
So far, altcoins have accounted for 35% of the overall market growth in this cycle.
For a long time, Bitcoin has benefited from regulatory clarity - this is reflected not only in its classification as a commodity but also in its well-known role as 'digital gold'. This has been a key driving force behind Bitcoin's outperformance compared to altcoins in the early stages of this cycle. Altcoins have historically faced greater regulatory uncertainty, which has only recently begun to change. Under the leadership of the new government in the United States, this landscape is shifting, making significant progress in promoting digital asset innovation.
Historically, the clarity and tailwinds favoring Bitcoin are now beginning to extend to altcoins. The market is starting to reflect this.
As victories in regulation continue to accumulate, momentum is building. Last month, President Trump signed the GENIUS Act, creating conditions for the prosperity of U.S.-regulated stablecoins, which are expected to become engines of global financial transactions. The CLARITY Act passed by the House aims to establish clearer boundaries between digital commodities and securities, helping to resolve the long-standing jurisdictional uncertainty between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). A transformation is underway, and we have reason to believe that non-Bitcoin tokens will be among the biggest beneficiaries.
Innovation and development are accelerating, particularly in the area of tokenization. Robinhood recently launched stock tokens supported by Arbitrum, aimed at democratizing stock trading and creating more efficient markets. Major U.S. banks like Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase are exploring issuing their own stablecoins. BlackRock's BUIDL fund has accumulated $2.3 billion in tokenized government bonds. Figure has processed over $50 billion in blockchain-native RWA transactions. In addition to the tokenized government bond fund, Ondo plans to list over 1,000 tokenized stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ through Ondo Global Markets. On-chain migration is underway.
Ethereum drives the growth of non-Bitcoin market share.
Most assets in the real world are flowing into Ethereum. In a $260 billion stablecoin market, 54% of stablecoins are issued on Ethereum. 73% of on-chain government bonds are on Ethereum. DAT is accumulating ETH at an unprecedented pace. Wall Street is gradually recognizing this, and demand for ETH is surging.
The price of Ethereum priced in BTC has risen 103% since it bottomed out in April 2025.
