After the release of the US CPI data, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates steady in September is only 9.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has surged to 90.1%. For October, the probability of maintaining interest rates is as low as 3.0%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 33.6%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut reaches 63.5%. This series of probability changes reflects the market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy direction. With the release of the CPI data, the market is more inclined to expect the Federal Reserve to take rate-cutting measures in September and beyond to address the current economic situation.
