“Is PROVE going to peak or retrace? Can the 1.5 USDT giant wall buy order support the next 50% rally?”

【Quick Overview】

After a 50% rise on the 6th, PROVE is currently consolidating near the lower Bollinger Band with reduced volume, the value range of 1.02–1.47 has become a new battleground for bulls and bears; contract positions increased by 22% in one day but there was a net outflow of funds at the 8H level, indicating a higher probability of a short-term 'false drop' over a real decline.

【Key Range Structure】

1. Value Anchor Zone: POC = 1.023 (largest transaction pile on the 6th, UpVol 81%), forming the bull's baseline.

2. High Volume Zone:

• HVN① 1.423–1.466 (UpVol 66%) — Previous high resistance, easy to retract on first touch.

• HVN② 0.970–0.996 (UpVol 88%) — Strong support on retracement.

3. Low Volume Gap: LVN 1.735–1.76 (volume only 18% of POC), if it breaks out with volume, it could directly hit 2.0.

4. 70% Value Zone: 0.745–1.596; current price at 1.51 is at the upper edge, slightly overbought short-term, but still has room to the upper band.

【Momentum Validation】

• A wall buy order of 1.66 million coins (value ≈ 2.49 million) appeared near 1.5 USDT, with buying pressure 10.8 times that of selling pressure, indicating clear signs of 'false drop' accumulation.

• In the past 4 hours, UpVol accounted for only 47%, must return to >60% to confirm the breakout of HVN①.

【Market Cycle】

In the medium term, still in the 'post-rally flag consolidation' stage; contract OI increased by 33% over 7 days, but there was a net outflow of -4.3M at the 8H level, which is a healthy turnover. If 1.02–1.05 does not break, the 'bull market continuation' judgment remains.

【Trading Strategy】

Aggressive: Buy on retracement 1.48–1.50 (inside LVN + wall order protection), stop loss at 1.45 (lower edge of HVN), target 1.55/1.60, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.3.

Conservative: Wait for 1.02–1.05 (POC + HVN②) to enter, stop loss at 0.98, target 1.15/1.25, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.1.

Cautious: Watch for a breakout with volume above 1.735 (upper edge of LVN) to enter long, stop loss at 1.69, target 2.0.

【Risk Warning】

• If 1.45 is broken by a real bearish candle, consider it a false breakout, exit long positions immediately.

• If contract OI increases by >40% while prices stagnate, be cautious of a long squeeze.

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