$XLM near $0.432 — Bulls eye key retracement zone, but sellers still holding ground

1) Yesterday’s Recap – August 11, 2025

Yesterday, $XLM (Stellar) moved in by a relatively narrow range, but buyers made several attempts to break resistance:

  • 1H Chart: Price ranged between $0.438 – $0.456. RSI stayed within 50–55, indicating neutral sentiment. MACD remained flat, showing a lack of clear momentum. Trading volume was moderate, with both buyers and sellers acting cautiously.

  • 4H Chart: The price held above the important $0.440 support level, strengthening the short-term bullish structure. RSI at 56 reflected a slightly bullish bias, and volume spikes during resistance tests indicated buyer interest at higher levels.

Key Fibonacci Levels (swing: $0.4383 → $0.4560):

  • 38.2%: $0.4475

  • 50%: $0.4471

  • 61.8%: $0.4467

  • 1.618 extension: $0.4918

2) Current Market – August 12, 2025

At present, the price stands at $0.4318, below all major retracement levels from the recent swing.

  • 1H Chart: RSI ~48 shows a slight bearish tilt. MACD is neutral to slightly negative. Trading volume is low, signaling a “wait-and-see” approach from market participants.

  • 4H Chart: The price is sitting in the $0.428 – $0.431 support zone, crucial for maintaining a bullish structure. RSI ~52 signals balanced forces, and the lack of significant volume growth indicates buyers have not entered aggressively yet.

3) Volume Analysis

The past 24 hours have shown a drop in trading volume compared to previous sessions, suggesting caution among traders after failed bullish breakouts. The absence of strong buying volume may delay recovery, but holding support with low volume often precedes sharp moves.

4) Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: Breaking $0.4471–$0.4475 with increasing volume could lead to $0.462 → $0.470 → $0.492 (1.618 extension).

  • Bearish Scenario: A drop below $0.4318 with strong selling volume could push the price down to $0.425 and then $0.420.

5) LONG Setup

  • Entry: ≥ $0.4475

  • Stop Loss: $0.4400

  • TP1: $0.4620

  • TP2: $0.4700

  • TP3: $0.4920 (1.618 ext)

6) SHORT Setup

  • Entry: < $0.4318

  • Stop Loss: $0.4380

  • TP1: $0.4250

  • TP2: $0.4200

  • TP3: $0.4150

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