$BTC near $121,900 – Will the bulls set new highs or is consolidation next?
1) Yesterday’s Recap – August 13, 2025

1H Timeframe

Yesterday’s session ranged between $119,900 – $124,200, with buyers regaining control in the second half of the day. After an initial dip to the $120,000 support zone, $BTC gradually recovered to test local resistance.

  • RSI stayed in the 53–58 range – buyers had the upper hand without entering overbought territory.

  • MACD remained positive, but the histogram stayed mostly flat, signaling no strong acceleration in trend.

  • Volume spiked during the first $124,200 test, but weakened afterward, suggesting partial profit-taking.

4H Timeframe

The medium-term structure remains bullish – the defense of $120,000 confirmed it as a strong support. Volume expansion on breakouts from consolidation indicated institutional activity.

  • RSI around 61 – sustained bullish pressure.

  • MACD in the positive zone, lines still diverging, showing potential for further upside.

Fibonacci (swing Aug 13: $119,900 → $124,200):

  • 38.2%: $122,150

  • 50.0%: $122,050

  • 61.8%: $121,850

  • 1.618 ext: $127,000

2) Current Market – August 14, 2025

Price: Around $121,900, near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with today’s range so far between $119,900 and $124,200.

1H Timeframe

  • RSI ~57 – buyers in control without market overheating.

  • MACD positive, but histogram declining – short-term consolidation possible.

  • Volume moderate – no decisive morning impulse.

4H Timeframe

  • Price holds above $121,850 – key support respected.

  • RSI ~62 – bullish zone maintained.

  • MACD in positive territory, sideways-to-upward structure.

  • No clear reversal patterns – bulls retain technical advantage.

Daily (D1) Timeframe Context

$BTC has been printing higher lows and higher highs for over two weeks. Nearest daily resistance sits in the $125,000–$127,000 area (1.618 Fibo from the last impulse).

3) Volume Analysis

  • Rising volume occurred mainly on tests above $124,000, suggesting fresh buy orders entering on breakout attempts.

  • Lower volume during pullbacks confirms sellers are not pressing aggressively – no signs of panic selling.

  • Compared to Aug 12, today’s volume is ~8% higher, possibly indicating gradual institutional accumulation.

4) Forecast

Bullish Scenario:

  • Holding above $121,850 and breaking $124,200 may open the way toward $125,500, then $127,000 (1.618 Fibo), and potentially $130,000 if momentum continues.

  • A surge in volume above the 20-period H1 average will confirm long entries.

Bearish Scenario:

  • Dropping below $121,850 with a 1H close and rising sell volume could trigger a move toward $120,500, then $119,000.

  • Stronger declines could occur if sell volume exceeds recent highs from Aug 12.

5) LONG Setup

  • Entry: After a confirmed H1 close above $124,200

  • Stop Loss: $121,850

  • TP1: $125,500

  • TP2: $127,000 (1.618 ext)

  • TP3: $130,000

    Rationale: Trade with the trend, enter after confirmed breakout, SL below key support.

6) SHORT Setup

  • Entry: After a confirmed H1 close below $121,850

  • Stop Loss: $124,200

  • TP1: $120,500

  • TP2: $119,000

  • TP3: $118,000

    Rationale: Enter if 61.8% Fibo support is lost, aiming for lower demand zones.

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