'Rising hits the brakes, beware of the ‘M Head’! The CPI knife is hanging, and the bulls are a bit shaky now!'
Current situation: Bitcoin's recent upward momentum is somewhat 'stalled' (upward momentum is slowing). The last two attempts (July 14 and this past Monday) to break through the strong resistance at 122,000 were unsuccessful, resulting in a swift drop.
Danger signal - 'Double Top/M Head': This pattern of two failed attempts to break through, with a retracement in between, is professionally known as a 'Double Top', resembling the letter 'M'. This is a potential bearish warning!
Key defense line (neckline): The death line of this 'M Head' is around 112,000 (which is the low point of the retracement in the middle). If the price of Bitcoin effectively falls below (closing price stabilizing below) 112,000, then the 'Double Top' will be confirmed, and a drop may begin, possibly targeting the 100,000 mark.
Heavy pressure above:
Want to rise? You must first stabilize at 120,000.
Over 120,000, 122,000 is still a major hurdle (it tripped twice before).
The ultimate BOSS is 123,000.
Weak support below:
The first line of defense is around 114,000.
The death line is at 112,000, breaking it would be troublesome.
If it really collapses, 100,000 is a psychological barrier.
The biggest minefield - Tonight's CPI:
Today the market is focused on the US CPI inflation data being released.
Bears are currently in the lead! Why? Because buying pressure is clearly insufficient (buying pressure has exhausted).
The danger lies in: If the published CPI data is higher than expected (inflation is stubborn), the market will worry that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates and could even become more hawkish. With the current weak buying pressure, it simply cannot absorb the potential panic selling that may flood in! The result could be - a 'flash crash'!
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