Bitcoin rose slightly after a 4000-point drop, currently oscillating around 119,000. Ethereum is rising strongly, nearing a new high. I analyzed yesterday that the market is approaching the end of distribution, not advisable to chase highs, suggest taking short-term profits near Bitcoin's previous high or waiting for a breakout. The BTC CME gap (118,405-119,110) has been filled, entry around 118,400, currently can achieve 600 points.
BTC
The tug-of-war between longs and shorts in Bitcoin has intensified, with an equal retracement to yesterday's starting point of 118,010 in the latter half of the night. A long upper shadow on the daily line creates a false breakout, and a massive bullish candle on the 4-hour chart has been broken by a bearish candle, affected by the risk aversion sentiment and technical gap filling triggered by the CPI data. The gap has not been completely filled, and fluctuations may occur repeatedly.
Strategy: Short-term momentum remains strong, suggest light positions for low absorption, and increase positions after the oscillation ends. If it doesn't break below 118,000 within 6 hours, it is expected to explore above 120,000 again. If it quickly rushes to 120,000 and shows a small bearish pattern, consider shorting with a stop loss set at yesterday's high.
ETH
Last night, Ethereum's ETF inflow surpassed 1 billion USD, with a transition to stablecoin ecology; Ethereum has completely transformed, all thanks to MicroStrategy's crazy buying on Ethereum, which has driven a mimicking rhythm.
Currently, ETH's overall structure is tending towards a converging triangle consolidation. If it continues to oscillate without breaking through, it will have to move down once. The volume over the past three days is about the same, previously a 17% rise, now unable to surpass a 4% range.
Ethereum's turnover has increased significantly, and if it cannot maintain a local higher low after the turnover, the risk will increase, and searching for support downwards is highly probable.
Strategy: Do not expect a major correction as long as it does not break 4150; adopt a strategy of high shorts and low longs. The key daily support of 4050 is the dividing line between longs and shorts. Resistance levels are 4310, 4330, 4414, 4458; support levels are 4153, 4120, 4080, 4050.
Altcoin
Altcoins have been oscillating sideways recently, mainly due to Trump's signing of the 401(K) allowing digital currencies, attracting funds and then washing out positions. Mainstream altcoins like SUI (only 0.3 away from the non-bear market bottom of 3.3), XRP, DOGE, LTC, etc. can be moderately added.
UNI
Regulatory easing benefits DeFi, UNI's value stands out, continuously bullish since June, about to take off, other DeFi coins are expected to follow.
ETHS
Ethereum is approaching a new high, strongly driving related coins. ETHS has fallen to the bottom, community consensus is strong, its market cap is undervalued, and there is significant room for recovery.
JUV
Current price 1.4, market cap about 20 million USD, actually lower. Highly controlled fan coin, Binance's direct market making, will not be delisted, if speculative funds intervene or contracts are involved, potential can be expected.
CPI data tonight may trigger a market shift, focusing on the comparison of four key data points with expectations and previous values:
1. Market expectations: Core CPI month-on-month 0.3%, year-on-year 3.0%-3.1%; CPI month-on-month 0.2%, year-on-year 2.7%-2.8%, all four items rebounding compared to last month.
2. Game Theory Logic: Slightly below expectations / previous values is bullish, slightly above is bearish, and significant deviations are very bearish, but the probability of a crash is lower than the last major non-farm payrolls. As long as the data is reasonable, it is considered bullish, indicating that conditions are improving and stabilizing.
Key for future trends:
1. The rise from last September to this January was due to interest rate cuts + expectations of Trump 2.0; further significant increases require actual implementation of interest rate cuts + Trump in power to unleash liquidity.
2. A large-scale altcoin season requires ETF funds to transition from a bull driven by fundamentals; small-scale altcoin rises will wait for Bitcoin and Ethereum to stabilize and for volatility to decrease, along with funds flowing out and sentiment rotation driving the market, possibly at tonight's data release or the September CPI and FOMC results (after macro uncertainty decreases, the market dares to increase risk positions).
