CPI Data Expectations and Market Focus

Core CPI Forecast Discrepancies

UBS: Expects core CPI month-on-month at 0.35% (higher than the market expectation of 0.32%), year-on-year at 3.11% (higher than the 3% expectation), the highest expectation in the entire market.

Goldman Sachs/BofA: Forecasts core CPI month-on-month at 0.31%-0.33%, year-on-year rising to 3.08%-3.1%.

Key Drivers: Tariffs pushing up core commodity prices (such as appliances, automobiles), service inflation acceleration (tourism peak season) are the main drivers.

Impact of Data on Federal Reserve Policies

If inflation exceeds expectations (e.g., ≥3.1%): May weaken market expectations for a rate cut in September (current probability 90%), strengthen the dollar, increase U.S. Treasury yields, suppress risk assets.

If in line with or below expectations: Reinforces rate cut logic, favorable for a rebound in risk assets. $BTC $ETH #CPI数据来袭 #币安Alpha上新