After a sharp drop of 4000 points, Bitcoin has slightly risen, currently fluctuating around 119,000. Ethereum is strongly rising and aiming for new highs! Yesterday, Sweet Dream mentioned in an article that the market is currently entering the distribution stage, and it is not a good opportunity to chase after the highs. Near the previous high for Bitcoin, short-term traders might consider taking partial profits before betting on a breakout. For those without long positions, pay attention to the gap in BTC CME between 118,405 USD and 119,110 USD, and consider buying on dips. Bitcoin has filled the gap as expected, and those who entered near 118,400 are currently up 600 points.
BTC
The competition between long and short positions in Bitcoin is intense. In the latter half of the night, BTC also experienced an equidistant pullback, returning to the starting point of yesterday's surge at 118,010.
Currently, Bitcoin's daily chart shows a long upper shadow, forming a typical false breakout, sounding the alarm for the upward trend. In the 4-hour chart, a huge bullish candle was quickly broken by several bearish candles, mainly due to CPI data triggering risk-averse sentiment and technical gap filling. The gap has not yet been completely filled, leaving room for repeated movements.
Currently, the hidden momentum of Bitcoin's rise is not diminishing but increasing. The strategy is to primarily take light positions on dips, waiting for a strong upward move after the fluctuations before adding more. Currently, within the 6-hour level, support is at 108050; if it does not break 118000, it will likely test above 120k again.
Short positions: If it quickly attacks above 120k and a small bearish pattern appears, I will attempt to short, with the stop-loss being yesterday's high.
ETH
Last night, the inflow of ETF data for Ethereum broke 1 billion USD. With the transition to a new ecosystem involving exchanges and stablecoins, Ethereum has completely transformed. All credit goes to the micro-strategies on Ethereum that are crazily buying, leading to a trend of imitation.
Currently, the overall structure of ETH tends to converge in a triangular pattern. If this continues without a breakout, it will likely move downward. The volume over the past three days is roughly similar; previously a 17% surge, now it struggles to rise above the 4% range.
The turnover of Ethereum has greatly increased. If it cannot maintain a local higher low after the turnover, the risk will increase, and searching for support downward will become a high-probability event.
Strategy: If it does not effectively break below 4150, do not look for a major correction, do not go short, just take high short and low long positions. The critical support and resistance exchange level on the daily chart is 4050, which serves as a crucial dividing line for large-scale long and short positions.
Resistance levels: 4310/4330/4414/4458; Support levels: 4153/4120/4080/4050
Altcoins
Altcoins have been fluctuating in the current position for several days, mainly to wash out those who rushed in due to the favorable news about Trump signing 401(K) for cryptocurrency allocation. Today, many mainstream altcoins can be used to add positions, such as Sui (the lowest point today is only 0.3 away from the non-bear market bottom point of about 3.3), XRP, Doge, LTC, etc.
UNI: Due to regulatory relaxation, tokens are starting to gain empowerment. Value coins are truly becoming value coins, and everyone should not hold biases against large-cap VC coins. I have been advocating for DeFi-related tokens since June, and now Uni is about to take off, with other DeFi tokens likely to follow.
ETHS: Ethereum is just a stone's throw away from new highs. As Ethereum becomes stronger, coins that are strongly correlated with it have the opportunity for good performance. ETHS has dropped significantly, is in the bottom area, and has strong community consensus, with great potential. ETHS should not lag behind; its market cap is currently too low.
JUV: Current price 1.4, low market cap around 20 million USD. The actual value is far below this market cap, with no contracts. All fan coins are highly controlled. Fan coins belong to a separate sector and will not be delisted. Market making is also controlled by Binance's direct affiliates, and if speculative funds are interested, contracts may be added.
odindog: 18M now, it was less than 11M when recommended, comfortable. Doing the right thing at the most suitable time; aiming for 100M. Has the rebate withdrawal been enabled? Everything has just begun, brothers who are on board, show your support.
CPI turning point
Currently, the market generally expects: Core CPI month-on-month 0.3%, year-on-year 3.0%-3.1%; CPI month-on-month 0.2%, year-on-year approximately 2.7%-2.8%. The four data points show some rebound compared to last month. Therefore, what to gamble on tonight is quite simple: slightly lower than expected/previous values is bullish, slightly higher than expected/previous values is bearish. A significant deviation from expectations would be very bearish. However, overall, the probability of a major blowout compared to last month's non-farm payrolls is low.
As long as tonight's CPI data is not as outrageous as the non-farm payrolls, it can be considered bullish, as it is gradually improving and stabilizing. If the rise from September last year to January this year was triggered by interest rate cuts combined with the expectations of a Trump 2.0 market, the subsequent major rise can only be the interest rate cuts plus the actual implementation of the Trump 2.0 market under Trump's authority.
Therefore, a large-scale altcoin season will likely wait until ETF funding expands into a fundamental bull market. Meanwhile, a smaller-scale altcoin rally requires Bitcoin and Ethereum to stabilize, with a quick rotation of overflow funds and emotions after a decrease in volatility. This timing may coincide with tonight's data release or the September CPI & September FOMC outcome → macro uncertainty decreases, allowing the market to take on more risk positions.
