Bitcoin has slightly risen after a drop of 4000 points, currently oscillating around 119,000. Ethereum is strong and surging, aiming for new highs! Yesterday, Sweet Dream mentioned in an article that the current market has entered the final phase of distribution, and it’s not a good time to chase long positions. Near the previous high of Bitcoin, short-term traders might consider taking partial profits before betting on a breakout. For those without long positions, pay attention to the gap in BTC CME at $118,405 to $119,110, and consider buying on dips. Bitcoin has indeed filled the gap as expected, currently up 600 points from the entry around 118,400.
BTC
The long and short battle in Bitcoin is fierce. In the latter half of the night, BTC also experienced an equidistant pullback, returning to the starting point of yesterday at 5:00, which was 118010.
Currently, Bitcoin has formed a long upper shadow on the daily level, constituting a typical false breakout, ringing alarm bells for the bullish trend. In the 4-hour chart, a massive bullish candle was quickly broken by multiple bearish candles, primarily due to the CPI data triggering risk aversion and technical gap filling. The gap has not yet been fully filled, indicating the possibility of repeated fluctuations.
Currently, Bitcoin's hidden upward momentum is not diminishing but increasing. Short-term focus should be on light positions and buying on dips. After a one-sided upward pull, add positions accordingly. Currently, within a 6-hour level adjustment, support is at 108050; if 118000 holds, it will once again test above 120K.
Short position: If there is a rapid surge above 120K and a small bearish pattern appears, I will attempt to short, with the stop loss set at yesterday's high.
ETH
Last night, Ethereum’s ETF data inflow broke 1 billion USD, with a change of operators and stablecoin ecology; Ethereum has completely transformed. All this is thanks to the micro-strategies on Ethereum that are buying aggressively, setting a rhythm that others are following.
Currently, the overall structure of ETH is tending toward a converging triangle consolidation. If it continues to oscillate without breaking out, it will likely move down once. The trading volume over the past three days has been roughly the same, previously a 17% pump, and now struggling to rise in a 4% range.
Ethereum’s turnover has increased a lot, and if it cannot maintain local higher lows after the turnover, the risk will increase, and looking for support downwards will become a probable event.
Strategy: If the price doesn't effectively break below 4150, do not expect a major correction, and don’t go short. Focus on high shorts and low longs. The key support and resistance switching level on the daily chart is 4050, which acts as a crucial watershed for larger long and short positions.
Resistance levels: 4310/4330/4414/4458; Support levels: 4153/4120/4080/4050
Altcoin
Altcoins have been fluctuating in the current position for several days, mainly washing out those who rushed in due to the favorable news of Trump signing 401(K) allowing digital currency allocations. Today, many mainstream altcoins can be averaged down, such as Sui (today's low is only 0.3 away from the non-bear market bottom point of around 3.3), XRP, Doge, LTC, etc.
UNI: Due to regulatory relaxation, token empowerment has begun. Value tokens are really beginning to become value tokens; everyone should not have prejudice against large market cap VC tokens. I have been calling for DeFi-related tokens since June, and now Uni is about to take off; other DeFi tokens will catch up.
ETHS: Ethereum is just a step away from a new high. As Ethereum becomes increasingly strong, coins closely associated with Ethereum may perform well. ETHS has dropped a lot, is in the bottom region, has strong community consensus, and has significant potential. ETHS should not lag behind; its market cap is too low.
JUV: Current price 1.4, low market cap around 20 million USD. The actual market cap is far below this, no contracts, all fan tokens are highly controlled, and fan tokens belong to a separate sector that will not delist. Market making is also controlled by Binance's direct arm; if there are speculative funds interested, contracts will be added.
odindog: 18M now, recommended when it was under 11M, comfortable, doing the right thing at the most suitable time, aiming for 100M. Has the rebate withdrawal been activated? Everything has just begun; brothers who are following should support.
CPI turning point
The market currently expects: core CPI monthly rate 0.3%, annual rate 3.0%-3.1%; CPI monthly rate 0.2%, annual rate about 2.7%-2.8%. Four data points have rebounded compared to last month. Therefore, tonight's speculation is also quite simple: slightly below expectations/previous values is a positive, slightly above expectations/previous values is a negative. A significant deviation from expectations would be a substantial negative. However, overall, the probability of a major blowout is not high compared to last time's non-farm payrolls.
As long as tonight's CPI data is not outrageous like the non-farm payrolls, it can be considered a positive sign, gradually improving and trending towards stability. If we say that the rise from September last year to January this year was triggered by interest rate cuts and the expectations of Trump's 2.0 market, the subsequent large rise can only be the landing version of Trump 2.0, driven by interest rate cuts and Trump actually wielding power to release liquidity.
Therefore, a large-scale altcoin season may have to wait until ETF funds expand into a fundamental bull market. Small-scale altcoin rises will need Bitcoin and Ethereum to stabilize, with reduced volatility leading to quick rotation of excess funds and emotions. This timing might be around tonight's data release or the September CPI & September FOMC landing → reducing macro uncertainty, allowing the market to take on risk positions.
