2025.8.12 BTC Crash Insider: Double Hit from Technical and News Aspects, How to Position for the Future?
Today, we will analyze last night's BTC crash from two dimensions: technical and news aspects, and provide personal opinions to help everyone grasp the upcoming market trends.
1. Technical Analysis: Overbought Pullback + Key Resistance Suppression
From the 1-hour candlestick chart, BTC quickly fell back after reaching the $122,000-$123,000 range last night, dropping to as low as around $118,000. This position happens to be the intersection point of the upper BOLL band and the Fibonacci 38.2% resistance level, representing a typical overbought pullback.
MACD Indicator: DIF crosses below DEA, forming a death cross, short-term momentum weakens.
VR: VR falls below MAV, indicating a weakening buying pressure in the market and increased selling pressure.
Chip Distribution: A large number of trapped positions have accumulated in the $123,000-$125,000 area, making it difficult to break through in the short term.
2. News Impact: Federal Reserve Policy + Market Panic Sentiment
Federal Reserve Hawkish Signals: Last night, Powell's speech hinted that the interest rate cut in September may be delayed, leading to a stronger dollar and funds flowing back to traditional markets, putting pressure on the crypto market.
Institutional Large Sell-offs: On-chain data shows that a whale address sold over 5,000 BTC near $122,000, triggering market follow-up sell-offs.
Regulatory Uncertainty: The U.S. SEC's discussions on new stablecoin regulations have heightened market concerns, causing some funds to choose safe havens.
3. Personal Opinion: Short-term Volatility, Still Bullish in the Long Run
Although last night's market experienced violent fluctuations, the fundamentals of BTC have not changed:
Institutional Holdings Still Increasing: ETF holdings from BlackRock, Fidelity, etc., continue to rise, indicating that long-term funds have not withdrawn.
Halving Effect Still Brewing: The logic of supply tightening after the 2024 halving remains unchanged, and the bull market cycle has not ended.
Key Support Not Broken: As long as $111,000 is not breached, the trend remains a healthy pullback rather than a bearish reversal.
Summary: The market is temporarily constrained by emotions and technical aspects, but pullbacks in a bull market are normal phenomena. The key is whether support can be maintained.
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