Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. CPI data is coming. Are you ready?

Since yesterday afternoon, the entire market has begun to enter a downward trend again. It is uncertain whether this is a normal range fluctuation or a market correction after reaching a peak, but it is likely related to the market's expectations of a rebound in CPI and risk-averse sentiment. After all, it hasn't been long since the last significant drop triggered by the revision of the non-farm payrolls, and the market may still be wary and has preemptively withdrawn to avoid the storm.

According to the current general market expectations, inflation has rebounded compared to last month. If it's only within expectations, then whether it's slightly higher or slightly lower, the impact won't be particularly significant. The market is more likely worried about what kind of unexpected developments might arise from the temporarily appointed deputy director after the previous Labor Department statistician was dismissed.

Currently, the market generally expects: Core CPI month-on-month at 0.3%, year-on-year at 3.0%-3.1%; CPI month-on-month at 0.2%, year-on-year at approximately 2.7%–2.8%. These four data points show a rebound compared to last month. Therefore, tonight's speculation is quite simple: slightly below expectations/previous values is favorable, slightly above expectations/previous values is unfavorable. A significant deviation from expectations would be very unfavorable. However, overall, compared to the last significant non-farm payrolls, the probability of a major shock is low.
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