In trend trading, there are two core signals worth paying special attention to when assessing the SOL trend.

First, the current largest whale group is still continuously absorbing chips. Looking back at history, the timing of these large funds increasing their positions at a large scale is almost always highly correlated with subsequent opportunities for price increases.

Second, in terms of chip structure, during the price correction phase, the chips around $165 increased, showing strong market consensus at this price level. Whenever there is a sell-off, there are buyers to support.

These signs suggest that SOL may be in a stage of waiting for an explosion, although the exact timing is difficult to predict. To verify this assumption, we analyze from two perspectives.

Panic sentiment and chip stability

Players' confidence in their holdings is often most reflected during floating losses. Therefore, we observed the behavior of different groups during the recent three declines (June 5, June 22, August 2).

Retail group (<0.1 ppm):

The realized losses from three declines were $33.61 million, $71.54 million, and $20 million respectively.

The decline on June 22 was the strongest moment of panic sentiment among retail investors, but during the correction on August 2, losses significantly narrowed, indicating that holders are more determined.

(Figure 1)

Core group (10-1000 ppm):

The loss amounts from three declines were $160 million, $74 million, and $81 million.

Unlike retail investors, who panic the most during the first round of decline and then maintain their positions during greater drops, leading to reduced losses.

(Figure 2)

Whale group (>1000 ppm):

The loss amounts from three declines were $28 million, $45 million, and $14 million.

Their loss amounts are not only far lower than those of the core group but even lower than those of retail investors. This indicates their confidence in holdings is extremely high, and the degree of panic further weakened during the decline on August 2.

(Figure 3)

Overall, regardless of group size, player sentiment is more stable than before, with panic selling significantly reduced.

2. Profit-taking and top signals

When the price reaches psychological resistance levels, concentrated profit-taking often indicates a temporary top.

Major holders (>10 ppm) experienced single-day profit-taking exceeding $1 billion in March and November 2024, and January 2025, with no similar scale of concentrated exits thereafter.

(Figure 4)

Conclusion:

Overall, players' mindset is more stable, able to withstand short-term floating losses without rushing to sell during profits. This stable holding structure provides a solid foundation for SOL to emerge from an independent trend in the future. In the short term, BTC's volatility remains an external variable, but if BTC stabilizes, the movements of SOL's major holders will be an important indicator for judging the trend.