Since yesterday afternoon, the entire market has begun to enter a downward trend again. Whether this is a normal range fluctuation or a pullback after the market has reached its peak remains uncertain. However, it is somewhat likely related to the market's expectations of a rebound in CPI and the associated risk aversion, especially since it is not far from the drop caused by the last major non-farm payrolls revision. The market may still be feeling apprehensive and has preemptively withdrawn to avoid the storm.

According to the current market consensus, inflation has rebounded compared to last month. If it is just within expectations, then whether it is slightly higher or slightly lower will not have a particularly significant impact. What the market is more concerned about is what kind of antics the temporarily appointed deputy director, after the previous Bureau of Labor Statistics director was dismissed, might pull.

The current market expectations are: Core CPI month-on-month 0.3%, year-on-year 3.0%-3.1%; CPI month-on-month 0.2%, year-on-year around 2.7%-2.8%. The four data points show a rebound compared to last month. Therefore, the gamble tonight is quite simple: slightly lower than expected/prior value is a positive signal, slightly higher than expected/prior value is a negative signal. A significant deviation from expectations would be very negative. However, overall, the probability of a major shock compared to the last major non-farm payrolls is low.