#Bitlayer #BTCOvertakesAmazon $ETH
Sustainable ETF inflows and corporate reserves may enable ETH to exceed $5,000 and challenge it for the first time.
Ethereum options lack euphoria:
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Key points:
ETH's value increased by 41% in one month, but derivatives data shows that traders remain cautious and not optimistic.
Institutional flows and corporate ether reserves indicate strong demand, but recession risks loom over the outlook.
Ether
Ethereum
$4,298
The value of ETH rose to $4,349 on Monday, its highest price since December 2021. Although it has outperformed the broader cryptocurrency market by over 30% over the past thirty days, derivatives data shows that ETH traders have not yet decisively turned bullish.
This has raised doubts about whether a rise to $5,000 is likely in the near term.
ETH/USD pair (blue) versus the market cap of cryptocurrencies (purple). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
Ethereum's value increased by 41% last month, compared to a 9% increase in the total market cap of cryptocurrencies. With this stellar performance, demand for hedging naturally rises as traders take profits and move towards other investment opportunities. Therefore, the decreased interest in bullish leveraged bets above $4,000 is not surprising.
Annual premium on six-month Ethereum futures. Source: laevitas.ch
Under neutral market conditions, monthly futures contracts typically trade at a premium of 5% to 10% compared to spot markets, to compensate for the longer settlement period. However, despite the price of Ethereum nearing six-month highs, this spread remains below a clear bullish level.
The lack of optimism is somewhat concerning given that spot ether ETFs attracted $683 million in net inflows between Thursday and Friday.
ETH options reflect neutral conditions despite the rise.
The ETH options market provides clues to measure whether traders missed the rally and are waiting for a better entry or instead expect the price to drop below $4,000.
In bearish settings, the delta skew of options moves above the neutral level of 6%, where put options achieve higher premiums. Conversely, excessive upside would drop the indicator below -6%.
Ethereum options delta skew (30 days) (Sell/Buy). Source: laevitas.ch
Currently, at -3%, the delta skew of ETH options indicates neutral sentiment. The indicator has significantly improved since August 2, when it briefly turned bearish after a 13% price drop.
Related: Ethereum's Fusaka upgrade is scheduled for November - What you need to know
In summary, professional traders are not overly optimistic, but they also do not expect Ethereum to test the $4,000 level again. This shift in sentiment is explained by increasing institutional demand for Ethereum holdings.
BitMine Immersion (BMNR), a publicly traded company, announced on Monday the addition of 317,126 Ethereum to its institutional reserves, valued at $1.35 billion at current prices. Meanwhile, Sharplink Gaming (SBET) announced it raised nearly $900 million to expand its Ethereum reserves strategy.
The company already holds about 600,000 ETH on its balance sheet, worth more than $2.55 billion at today's levels.
The risk of an economic recession is the biggest threat to the $5,000 ETH.
Neutral ether derivatives readings are encouraging, especially as traders failed to anticipate the swift rise from $3,400 to $4,300 in just eight days.
The longer ETH stays above $4,000, the more likely traders will gain confidence and start bullish positions, potentially paving the way for a move towards $5,000.
Macroeconomic conditions and general risk appetite continue to be the main barriers to achieving further gains. Some investors fear that US tariffs on imports could negatively impact global economic growth. However, the upcoming summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump has eased geopolitical tensions, at least for now.
If spot ETF inflows continue and companies keep raising capital to expand their ether reserves, ether is well-positioned to outperform the broader cryptocurrency market.
