Bitcoin is stabilizing around its all-time high price range, awaiting important upcoming U.S. economic data, with expectations that inflation and Fed policy will determine the next direction.
Investors closely monitor indicators such as CPI, PPI, retail sales this week, considering them key signals directly affecting Bitcoin prices and the potential to reach new peaks in the near future.
MAIN CONTENT
Bitcoin is moving sideways while waiting for information about inflation, consumer spending, and expectations regarding monetary policy from the Fed.
Leverage money is returning strongly, bringing both price increase opportunities and rapid liquidation risks if macro data is poor.
Bitcoin surpasses the $120,000 mark, gaining market share as Ethereum weakens, but maintaining the upward trend depends on U.S. economic data.
How does U.S. economic data this week affect Bitcoin prices?
U.S. economic data such as inflation, producer prices, and retail sales expected to be released from August 11-15 could strongly impact the Fed's policy, directly affecting Bitcoin price volatility.
The CPI index for July, announced on August 12, is expected to rise to 2.8%. PPI and retail sales will be released on August 15 and 16, helping investors assess the health of the U.S. economy and the trend of inflation.
Tradingeconomics.com, 2025
The results of these indicators will help shape expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate cut actions, thereby quickly impacting the flow of capital into risky investment channels such as cryptocurrencies.
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows an 88% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, but the actual decision depends entirely on this week's economic picture. If good data exceeds expectations, Bitcoin could surge strongly and head towards a new price peak.
What does the inflation measurement index and consumer spending in the U.S. consist of?
Three key economic data points are CPI (Consumer Price Index), PPI (Producer Price Index), and retail sales, along with consumer sentiment surveys and inflation expectations, which will create a comprehensive picture of the U.S. economy, significantly impacting the financial markets.
"The CPI index is a leading measure of price increases in the U.S., often directly affecting investment behavior and the flow trend into risky assets like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general."
CNBC, Market Report 2025
In addition to CPI, PPI helps investors identify inflationary pressures at the production stage – a factor influencing input prices that may be passed on to consumers in subsequent periods. Retail sales determine spending power and consumer confidence in the U.S. – the main driver of the economy and also a signal for the Fed to consider its interest rate decisions.
The data release this week is expected to help investors determine whether the economy has managed to control inflation, as well as the prospects for future interest rate cuts.
Why does the Fed Watch Tool predict an 88% probability of an interest rate cut?
The predicted 88% probability of an interest rate cut in September according to the FedWatch Tool arises from expectations of cooling inflation, stable consumption, and signs of economic growth beginning to slow.
The latest CME Group report shows that investors predict a high likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in 2025, mainly based on the CPI, PPI, retail sales, and consumer sentiment data to be released this week.
"The financial market currently 'prices in' almost certainly that the Fed will cut interest rates if macro indicators confirm the trend of cooling inflation and stable consumer growth."
CME Group Report, 2025
If the published data is good, capital may flow back into risky assets, especially Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Conversely, poor data and concerns about prolonged high interest rates could cause sudden downward price pressure in the market.
How has the flow of leveraged money in the Bitcoin market been over the past week?
Last week recorded a significant increase in the total Funding Rate indicators of Bitcoin, while Open interest has stopped declining and climbed to about $41.5 billion – reflecting a strong return of long-term leveraged money.
Coinalyze data shows that new long leveraged positions have been opened, creating demand for prices, explaining why Bitcoin surged strongly in the short term. However, high leverage always carries risks, as unusual volatility from macro data can cause a chain liquidation phenomenon.
"The steadily increasing funding rate shows that investors are very optimistic about Bitcoin's upward trend, but if buying power cannot be maintained or macro data delivers a 'cold shower', a strong sell-off will occur."
Glassnode, On-chain Report, 2025
The risks become apparent if the costs of maintaining long positions rise, as leverage can easily turn into a double-edged sword, causing strong selling pressure if adverse shocks occur in the market.
What are the price movements of Bitcoin and the change in weight compared to Ethereum?
The ETH/BTC index has dropped near the 0.037 range after previously reaching its most recent peak, indicating a clear capital shift from Ethereum to Bitcoin at a time when investors prefer safety while waiting for important economic data.
Additionally, the BTC/USD technical chart shows very positive signals, as MACD creates a bullish crossover and RSI remains around 66 – still has room for price increases before the overbought zone. Most importantly, Bitcoin has surpassed $120,000 with strong buying pressure, reinforcing the support zone of $118,000 to $119,000 only in case of short-term adjustments.
"Bitcoin's surpassing the $120,000 mark with good liquidity implies high expectations for a new price surge, especially if it breaks through the resistance area of $123,000 – corresponding to the previous all-time high."
Bloomberg, Cryptocurrency Market Report, 2025
When ETH weakens relatively against BTC, Bitcoin's dominance position is reinforced, especially when the entire market expects a breakthrough if monetary policy supports it. Prices maintain strong upward momentum only when macro news supports the current optimistic trend.
Long-term trend: Will Bitcoin prices continue to rise strongly or adjust?
The ability of Bitcoin to maintain its upward momentum largely depends on whether the macro data supports the scenario of interest rate cuts. Increased leverage indicates that many traders are willing to 'bet' on an upward trend, but at the same time, they are vulnerable when adverse macro factors emerge.
History shows that every time the Fed signals a rate cut in a controlled inflation environment, the prices of risky assets like Bitcoin tend to recover and reach new all-time highs, but this always comes with the risk of unexpected adjustments if market expectations do not align with the actual published data.
It is expected that if the U.S. economic indicators this week align positively, Bitcoin is likely to continue the price discovery phase, aiming for new all-time highs, but caution must still be maintained regarding the risk of 'bull traps' or strong technical adjustments.
Comparing the impact of U.S. economic data on Bitcoin in recent years
In reality, every time the U.S. announces a series of major macroeconomic data, Bitcoin prices respond quickly, but the volatility varies depending on the level of surprise and the cumulative impact on Fed expectations. Below is a typical comparison table:
CPI PPI Retail Sales Bitcoin fluctuations in the week March 2023 +6.0% +4.6% +2.3% Increased 21% October 2024 +3.4% +2.9% +1.6% Sideways, slight fluctuations May 2025 +2.8% +2.7% +2.2% Decreased 9%
The table above shows that the most significant impact on Bitcoin prices occurs when there is a surprise between expectations and reality. If CPI and retail sales exceed forecasts, prices typically rise sharply. Conversely, poor data or data lower than expectations can easily create downward pressure.
The main risks and opportunities when Bitcoin is at its all-time high price
When Bitcoin hovers near its historical peak, the opportunity for further price increases is significant if cash inflows are strong and macro expectations are positive. However, risks also arise when leverage increases, and many long positions may be liquidated if a data shock or reversal of expectations occurs.
Experts suggest that investors should prioritize risk management, avoid excessive leverage, actively update key economic data points, avoid FOMO when prices surge, and seek a balance between profit and risk.
"The nature of the cryptocurrency market is very volatile. When leverage is high, any unfavorable economic data could lead to extremely fast and strong market adjustments, especially near all-time high price levels."
Morgan Stanley, Financial Report 2025
The appropriate strategy is to allocate the investment portfolio reasonably, prioritize moderate leverage, closely follow U.S. economic data, to leverage trends while preserving capital when the market suddenly reverses.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Key Signals to Watch Around the ATH Zone
On the technical chart, Bitcoin shows clear 'bullish' signs: MACD crossing upward, RSI not yet in the overbought zone, price breaking through $120,000 creating support at $118,000–$119,000. The strongest resistance currently is at the $123,000 mark, which is also the most recent all-time high.
When prices hold above support and liquidity does not decline, the probability of breaking the ATH significantly increases. However, volatility remains high and reacts quickly to macro news – investors need to be cautious of the risk of 'bull traps' if unfavorable unforeseen information arises.
If it successfully surpasses $123,000 and holds above this level for at least several consecutive sessions, the market will enter a 'price discovery' state, where buyers completely control short-term momentum, opening up new price increase possibilities.
The correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum during the wait for macro data
The drop in ETH/BTC indicates that capital is leaving Ethereum and shifting to Bitcoin, reflecting investors' 'defensive' mentality in the face of macro fluctuations. As risks increase, investors often turn to Bitcoin – the asset with the widest liquidity and stability recognition in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
The relative weakness of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin in the current context mainly stems from the appeal of Bitcoin when close to its all-time high, alongside many large investors preferring to hold Bitcoin to avoid uncontrollable volatility if economic data is poor.
What should investors and traders do during the phase when the market determines Bitcoin's fate?
Experts and major exchanges recommend that traders reduce the frequency of speculative trading around sensitive areas; increase observation weight, and wait for economic data to be clearly published before making decisions. At the same time, manage capital tightly, limiting leverage to prevent 'liquidation traps'.
"At this stage, patience is profit. Patiently observing and responding strategically to each important economic report often yields longer-term effectiveness than emotional trading."
Arthur Hayes, Former CEO of BitMEX, interview in 2024
Technical analysis should be combined with continuous macro data assessment, not solely relied upon to mitigate the risk of rapid market reversals due to economic shock news.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does Bitcoin still have the potential for price increases after surpassing $120,000?
When holding above $120,000, if U.S. economic data is good, Bitcoin still has room for price increases towards new all-time highs, but the risk of adjustment also accompanies it.
Which economic data has the strongest impact on Bitcoin prices?
CPI, PPI, retail sales, consumer sentiment, and inflation expectations are considered the set of indicators with the fastest impact on Bitcoin price volatility.
Is the increased leverage in the Bitcoin market a good or bad sign?
High leverage can drive prices up quickly but also creates the risk of fast liquidations if macro data is poor. Risk management should always accompany leveraged trading.
Why is ETH decreasing compared to Bitcoin during this period?
ETH declines as capital shifts to Bitcoin, as investors prioritize safer assets while waiting for decisive economic data from the U.S.
Where are the important technical support and resistance zones for Bitcoin currently?
Strong support lies in the $118,000–$119,000 range, with the current major resistance at $123,000 – also the most recent all-time high.
Should large leverage be used when trading Bitcoin around this range?
Financial science advises against excessive leverage around sensitive areas, prioritizing capital management to minimize liquidation risks when unexpected market movements occur.
What is the appropriate Bitcoin investment strategy after this week's economic data?
Wait for clear economic results to be published, consider increasing investment weight if the data aligns with the upward trend, combined with good risk management.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/cpi-tuan-nay-quyet-dinh-gia-bitcoin/
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