Ethereum is heading towards the 4,800 USD price range thanks to strong accumulation waves from large institutions, but the high leverage ratio poses the potential for significant volatility in the short term.
Ethereum is currently trading within a multi-month upward channel, with buying volumes reaching hundreds of millions of USD daily, indicating active participation from institutional investors; however, the market needs to be cautious about the risk of corrections due to high leverage.
MAIN CONTENT
Ethereum's price surge is attributed to accumulation from financial institutions, facing high leverage on exchanges.
The Coinbase Premium Index has remained consistently positive, indicating significant buying power from the United States over the past three months.
The leverage ratio and on-chain indicators warn of potential volatility as ETH approaches the ATH region in the new cycle.
Ethereum's price surge in the accumulation channel, where does it come from?
Ethereum has maintained an impressive upward trend after hitting a low of 1,300 USD four months ago, now approaching an all-time high of 4,800 USD, primarily due to capital inflow from institutional investors.
Accumulation from large institutions is a key driver of Ethereum's strong price increase at this stage.
AMBCrypto, ETH market analysis report June 2025
Since hitting a low around 1,300 USD, ETH has continuously broken out and reached 4,275 USD, marking an increase of up to 21% in just one week of trading. This strong comeback is not only the result of individual investors but also significantly influenced by large funds and institutions.
In this trend, multiple tests of historical resistance not only reflect ETH's recovery potential but also affirm the dominant role of institutional capital, especially when buying volumes for ETH spike on major trading platforms like Coinbase.
Is the multi-month upward fluctuation of Ethereum sustainable?
ETH has maintained a multi-month upward channel since recovering from the low region, showing a clear accumulation movement and strong confidence from the market.
Ethereum is attracting massive capital thanks to fundamental factors and the participation of professional investors, as its real value far exceeds the market's previous expectations.
Glassnode Insights, On-chain Analysis, Q2 2025
Data shows ETH has been climbing steadily, with trading volumes increasing with each net buying cycle, reflecting the sustainable accumulation trend of whales and large financial institutions. Notably, as ETH approaches the 4,800 USD mark, historical trading records indicate that buying pressure leads the entire market, focusing on platforms like Coinbase with overwhelming demand.
Additionally, technical analyses confirm that each time Ethereum tests historical resistance areas, it leads to breaking long-term downward trends, laying the foundation for new recovery waves and activating FOMO sentiment from both seasoned investors and newcomers.
Why is institutional capital continuing to flow into Ethereum?
When talking about ETH's upward trend, a notable highlight is the sustainable demand from global financial institutions, clearly demonstrated through the Coinbase Premium Index consistently remaining positive over the last three months.
An unidentified institution purchased 49,533 ETH, worth 212 million USD in just one day, bringing the total amount bought to 221,166 ETH (946.6 million USD) within a week.
Lookonchain, ETH cash flow analysis report week 1/6/2025
The Coinbase Premium Index helps measure the price difference between Coinbase and international exchanges. The continuous maintenance of a positive position, except for 7 days in 3 months, confirms the large buying power from U.S. institutions – a group that typically leads cryptocurrency market trends.
This extremely large amount of ETH purchased not only creates buying pressure pushing prices up but also reflects the demand for long-term holding from asset management funds or financial institutions with capital scales in the billions of USD. This is also one of the first signs that foreshadow the next major upward waves of the market if the demand continues.
Direct report on large scale ETH purchases
Data recorded from Lookonchain shows the occurrence of single ETH purchases reaching hundreds of millions of USD, reflecting the extraordinary capital inflow strength compared to the average individual investor.
When an institutional whale buys over 200 thousand ETH in just one week, it is a strong signal to push prices to new resistance levels.
Lookonchain, report on X.com, June 2025
For example, just on a day in early June 2025, an institution purchased 49,533 ETH worth approximately 212 million USD. In the following week, this individual/institution continued to buy a total of 221,166 ETH (946.6 million USD) – a scale that even large investment funds in the market must pay attention to.
Historical facts show that whenever large capital flows strongly into the market, subsequent price expansion phases often appear, especially if this demand comes from a group of investment institutions with long-term operations and significant global influence.
What does the Coinbase Premium Index indicate?
The Coinbase Premium Index is a leading indicator, clearly showing the active buying power of large institutions in the U.S. through the price difference between Coinbase and other international exchanges.
Only 7 days out of the past 3 months did this index turn negative, while the rest showed strong capital inflow into ETH from the United States – where many institutional investment funds are actively operating.
Analysts view this as direct evidence of the commitment of large institutions to accumulate long-term in the context of the market expecting major changes in legal, investment, and application aspects for the Ethereum ecosystem in 2025.
The importance of institutional capital flows for Ethereum's price trend
Any major asset market that attracts demand from institutions witnesses strong and sustainable price increases, and Ethereum is no exception. The active participation of institutional investment funds reinforces the long-term bullish trend for ETH.
An important distinction is that financial institutions are not only focused on short-term trading but also hold medium to long-term positions, laying the groundwork for the next growth waves thanks to the commitment of continuous capital inflow into the market.
This also helps ETH become one of the top long-term investment assets in the cryptocurrency field, opening up the potential for more stable growth compared to other altcoins.
What is the current leverage ratio in the Ethereum market?
Although institutional capital has flowed in strongly, the Ethereum market also shows warning signs through the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) at an unusually high level, posing many risks of price corrections in the short term.
The market-wide ELR stands at 0.68 – close to the historical peak, reflecting that the Open Interest in derivative contracts accounts for up to 68% of the total ETH spot volume on the exchange.
CryptoQuant, CryptoOnchain analyst, report June 2025
The ELR index measures the leverage ratio, indicating the degree of leveraged trading compared to the actual amount of ETH held. When this index reaches 0.68, it means that Open Interest in the derivatives market, perpetual contracts account for up to 68% of the spot reserves on the exchange – a very high level when placed in the context of major markets.
Although 0.68 is not an extreme leverage level, it is enough to create large unexpected volatility waves in the event that Long/Short positions are liquidated en masse, especially when the current upward wave mainly comes from leveraged capital rather than real money flow.
Short-term warning scenario from high leverage ratio (ELR)
A strong increase in ELR is always a warning sign about the possibility of unexpected corrections in the short term, as selling pressure may cause a domino effect on positions using high leverage.
Specifically, when the market continues to heat up under the influence of leverage, a small price drop can trigger stop-loss orders and widespread liquidations, causing the price of ETH to drop sharply to important support levels in a short time.
Compared to the general level, the ELR of Binance exchange is recorded lower (0.52) than the overall market (0.68), indicating that leverage pressure is still more concentrated on other platforms such as Bybit, OKX, or specialized derivatives exchanges.
Comparison of leverage ratios across exchanges
The comparison table below clarifies the leverage levels among prominent exchanges in recent times:
Exchange Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) Risk Assessment Market-wide 0.68 Very high, prone to strong volatility Binance 0.52 Above average Bybit/OKX (estimated) 0.70+ (higher than average) Greater liquidation risk
The detection of significantly higher leverage ratios at popular derivatives exchanges allows investors to actively adjust their strategies, avoid large potential fluctuations that could occur at any time, and protect profits against market volatility.
What does the ETH Taker Buy/Sell Ratio spike indicate?
New analysis from AMBCrypto shows that the ETH Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has risen above 1.005, confirming that the advantage lies with the buyers, especially large institutions.
When this indicator rises above 1.0, it indicates overwhelming buying power across the market, especially from institutions with significant capital.
AMBCrypto, Analysis of Taker Buy/Sell Ratio data, June 2025
The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio is an indicator measuring the ratio of active buy trades to active sell trades. When this index shifts from negative to positive, especially exceeding the threshold of 1, it indicates that strong buying power is flowing into the market, usually leading to a continuation of the upward price trend.
The strong index increase confirms that not only retail investors but also large institutions are dominating the market, intensifying their accumulation of ETH at all price levels and ready to push prices up to the next resistance levels.
Market situation: Is the buyers' advantage sustainable?
While positive indicators from institutions continue to push ETH's price to the 4,275 USD area, active trading ratios show that buyers currently still hold control of the short-term market.
If this accumulation trend continues, Ethereum could completely conquer the next price targets at 4,501 USD and 4,788 USD, gradually approaching the old ATH. However, if volatility occurs and triggers liquidations due to high leverage, the risk of ETH dropping to 3,980 USD – an important reversal zone noted by AMBCrypto.
Therefore, investors need to continuously update on-chain indicators and leverage levels to guard against the risk of sudden corrections while taking advantage of growth opportunities when institutional capital is still accumulating strongly.
Major trends affecting Ethereum's price outlook in 2025
In addition to the short-term factors mentioned above, Ethereum's outlook is also affected by major trends such as Layer 2 technology updates, DeFi applications, expectations for new regulatory frameworks in the United States, and the development of Ethereum ETF funds.
Experts suggest that if the trend of establishing ETH ETFs is widely approved, along with the wave of tokenization of traditional assets, Ethereum will continue to be the center attracting large capital flows from both institutions and individual investors globally throughout 2025.
In addition, capital efficiency, liquidity indicators, and the trend of shifting investment flows from technology stocks to digital assets like ETH will also be decisive factors in the ability to hit or surpass a new ATH in the near future.
Ethereum market: Advice for investors
Ethereum investors need to closely monitor on-chain indicators such as Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, ELR, and cash flow on major exchanges (Coinbase, Binance, etc.) to timely identify reversal signals or confirm strong upward trends.
Additionally, risk management with leveraged positions is essential when the market is at risk of strong volatility due to record-high ELR.
Taking advantage of opportunities from correction phases, maintaining HODL with ETH while institutional capital has not shown signs of retreating is a strategy chosen by many international financial experts in the current period.
Frequently asked questions
What factors have primarily contributed to Ethereum's recent price surge?
The upward trend is primarily due to strong accumulation flows from large financial institutions, especially in the United States through exchanges like Coinbase, according to recent reports from AMBCrypto and Lookonchain.
What does the Coinbase Premium Index mean for Ethereum?
This index reflects the demand from institutions in the United States; maintaining positive prices for several consecutive weeks indicates that large capital flows are aggressively buying into ETH.
What risks are associated with a high ELR (Estimated Leverage Ratio)?
A high ELR indicates that the market is using a lot of leverage, posing the risk of mass liquidations that could cause ETH prices to fluctuate significantly in the short term, especially if a sell-off trend emerges.
Are buyers or sellers dominant in the ETH market?
On-chain reports confirm that buyers, particularly large institutional groups, still control the market as the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio rises above 1.0.
Under what scenario could Ethereum experience a significant price correction?
If a long squeeze occurs due to leveraged liquidations, ETH could drop to the support area of 3,980 USD – according to AMBCrypto's technical analysis June 2025.
What does the spike in ETH purchases from institutions signify?
This is a positive signal for the medium term, as large institutional holders often create a solid foundation for subsequent price increases.
What factors should investors pay attention to when trading ETH currently?
It is important to closely monitor on-chain indicators, leverage ratios on major exchanges, and the accumulation buying trend from institutions to optimize opportunities and reduce risks.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/to-chuc-mua-ethereum-gia-sap-dieu-chinh/
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