The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet declined by $1.7bn over the past week, while several Fed chairs outlined differing views on the pace and scale of future rate cuts:
Mary Daly, Fed Chair
🟠More than two rate cuts may be needed this year
🟠Decisions should be based on likely economic scenarios
🟠Tariffs unlikely to drive sustained price increases
🟠Labor market is weakening; further slowdown would be undesirable
Neel Kashkari, Fed Chair
🟠Economy is slowing, and two cuts in 2025 remain appropriate
🟠Policy adjustment may be better than waiting
🟠Tariff impact on inflation uncertain, but slowdown data is already evident
Raphael Bostic, Fed Chair
🟠One rate cut this year remains baseline, but more data will come before September
🟠Labor market risks are higher now than before the last meeting
🟠Tariffs may have longer and more complex effects than expected
Alberto Musalem, Fed Chair
🟠Labor market near full employment, but weaker growth poses job risks
🟠Tariff-driven inflation effect likely short-lived
Market expectations for Fed rate moves:
🟠Sep 17: cut by 25 bps to 4.00-4.25%
🟠Oct 29: cut by 25 bps to 3.75-4.00%
🟠Dec 10: cut by 25 bps to 3.50-3.75%
🟠Jan 28, 2026: pause
🟠Mar 18, 2026: pause
🟠Apr 29, 2026: cut by 25 bps to 3.25-3.50%
🟠Jun 17, 2026: pause