Tomorrow night (August 12, 20:30), traders worldwide will hold their breath as they closely watch the U.S. July CPI data. Market consensus has sounded the alarm: core inflation year-on-year is expected to breach 3%, hitting a five-month high; overall inflation year-on-year is 2.8%, rising for the third consecutive month! If the data holds true, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September will plummet from 91%, and the recently set Bitcoin record of $122,000 may instantly become a battleground of longs and shorts.
More dangerous signals hidden in the details—
Tariff inflation has already drawn blood! Morgan Stanley issues urgent warning: Trump's tariffs are violently driving up prices of toys, sports goods, and furniture; after corporate inventories are cleared, July CPI could see a cost-passing 'tsunami.'
Gold plummets 2% in a single day! The $3,400 support line collapses overnight, hedge funds are frantically selling off safe-haven assets—this is not just a technical adjustment, but rather a gambler's naked fear of the 'stagflation ghost.'
The Fed is caught in the ultimate paradox: on one side, the job market is rapidly cooling (July employment ratio falls to a three-year low), on the other, inflation flames are rebounding. If tonight's data exceeds expectations, Powell will be forced to choose between 'recession' and 'inflation,' and the global liquidity gates may close urgently!
This is a trial more deadly than non-farm payrolls. Wall Street whispers are circulating: when Bitcoin at $122,000 and gold at $3,360 go their separate ways, capital has already sniffed it out—tonight's CPI will either ignite the bull market engine or trigger the bomb fuse!
Institutions are swallowing up $100 billion in chips; the 'doomsday warplanes' behind the violent surge in BTC and ETH have already been activated!
Bitcoin surges 3.2% in a single day, breaking $122,000 (just 1% away from its all-time high!), Ethereum skyrockets 21% in 7 days to $4300, hitting a three-year high! This surge is not just retail frenzy—institutional giants are quietly maneuvering.
$113 billion in BTC and $13 billion in ETH has been locked by listed asset management companies, with weekly accumulation equivalent to the GDP of a small country!
Trump family's 'crypto empire' surfaces: Eric Trump publicly supports Ethereum, his World Liberty Financial (WLFI) conspires to tokenize public companies, political capital becomes new fuel!
Tomorrow night CPI: the 'judgment moment' for bulls!
All eyes are on the U.S. July CPI data tonight at 20:30 Beijing time! If inflation cools (expected core CPI year-on-year at 3%), the probability of a rate cut in September could soar to 91.5% (CME Fed Watch data).
BTC may lightning-burst past the historical peak of $123,000, triggering an $1.8 billion short massacre (the short squeeze powder keg has already been set!)
Crazy bets on ETH call options at $6000! Deribit exchange data shows a 300% surge in December $6000 call contract trading volume, Wall Street consensus: ETH will replicate the 2021 'frenzied bull market'!
Major shock warning: hedge funds are frantically buying 'doomsday insurance'!
Despite explosive upward momentum, smart money has quietly positioned itself for a downward hedge:
ETH short-term implied volatility skyrockets to 70% (BTC only 35%), panic buying suggests a potential 10% flash crash after CPI!
Technical analysis reveals a 'death signal': BTC has hit a high and retreated three times at the $122K mark, and $1 billion in sell orders are piled up in the $4300-4350 range for ETH. Warning from the institution: a trap to lure buyers has been set, and a short squeeze is imminent!
Ultimate script:
On Friday, Trump and Putin held a secret meeting in Alaska; if a ceasefire agreement is reached in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global risk assets will receive another nuclear-level boost! Coupled with Fed Vice Chair Bowman’s 'hawkish' support for a rate cut in September, $100 billion in pension funds (401k) could suddenly flood the crypto market—$120 billion in capital ready to buy BTC!
Old Zhu's bold statement: If CPI is below 3%, buy with your eyes closed! $122K is not the peak, but the new starting point for a bull market! However, if the data blows up—$119K support could become a graveyard for longs and shorts, with rivers of blood! Pay attention to Old Zhu's hundred-fold sniping strategy tonight!
