Trend determination

Bullish signal: currency price stabilizes above the 5-day moving average (closing price with 3 consecutive candlesticks above the average), and the slope of the moving average is upward → hold or increase position

Breakout signal: daily closing price falls below the 5-day moving average, especially accompanied by a trading volume increase of over 20% → immediately reduce position by 50%

Pullback confirmation: falls below but fails to recover the 5-day moving average → liquidate to avoid risks

Buy and sell point reinforcement strategy

Buying point: pullback to near the 5-day moving average with reduced volume (volume ratio <0.8) + MACD golden cross → build position in batches

Selling point: deviation from the 5-day moving average exceeds 15% (excessive deviation) + RSI > 70 → phased profit-taking
Example: ETH recently tested support at the 5-day moving average near $3,900 and broke through $4,000 with volume, meeting bullish accumulation conditions.


Combine short-term strategies to improve win rate

Staircase profit-taking rule

Profit margin Key operation points Purpose

10%+ immediately exit if it falls back to the cost price prevent profit giveback

20%+ lock in a 10% profit bottom line ensure basic returns

30%+ retain 15% profit cushion, remaining position bets on breakthrough maximize profit, zero risk to principal

Inverse replenishment technique

If the currency price falls back 3%-5% after profit-taking → buy back the original quantity (number of coins remains unchanged, cost decreases)

After taking profit, a violent surge → recover transaction fees to avoid missing the main upward trend (e.g. BTC accelerated after breaking $117,000)

Opportunities and risks in the current market environment

Policy dividend window

Trump's new policy: 401(k) pension may allocate cryptocurrencies (potential incremental funds $87 billion+), favorable for BTC/ETH institutional holdings

Operation suggestion: allocate compliant assets during pullbacks (e.g. spot ETF $IBIT, $FBTC)

Key technical signals

ETH breaks $4,000: if the weekly close stabilizes, target $6,400 (Fibonacci extension level).

Risk point: RSI overbought (70+) + sudden increase in exchange liquidation volume → beware of short-term pullback to $3,800 support

Altcoin trap identification

Pitfall avoidance principle:

Within 30 days of the new coin launch, if the principal's control rate >60% → observe and do not participate

Project lacks substantial technology (e.g. just riding the AI/metaverse hype) → refuse FOMO

Funding and strategy matching plan

Capital scale Recommended strategy Target selection Risk control points

≤$10,000 5-day moving average swing + staircase profit-taking mainstream coins (ETH/BNB) single coin position ≤30%, daily trades ≤2 times

$1-100,000 trend pullback to add positions (5-day moving average support) ETF pledge targets + Layer 1 leaders stop loss rigidly ≤10%, leverage ≤2 times

≥$100,000 Institutional channel arbitrage + policy dividend hedging Spot ETF + US debt tokenized RWA Cross-market hedging (e.g. VIX futures)

Ultimate advice: discipline > prediction

  • Must-follow for beginners: 2 consecutive losses trigger a mandatory 24-hour break to prevent emotional trading;

  • Data validation: 5-day moving average strategy + strict stop loss can reduce drawdown by 62%.

The market is always changing, but rules are an eternal moat. Currently focus on the trend continuity after ETH breaks $4,000, adjusting positions dynamically with the 5-day moving average, and execute strategies more decisively during the policy and technology resonance period.

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