Fundamentals:
In the US stock market, giants in the technology and financial sectors have joined forces to launch a $1.1 trillion stock buyback spree. So far this year, US companies have announced $983.6 billion in stock buybacks, a record high for a year. It's projected that buybacks for the entire year of 2025 will exceed $1.1 trillion, breaking the all-time record. This buyback activity has been primarily concentrated among leading companies, with the largest buyback authorizations this year coming from large technology companies, particularly those in the artificial intelligence field.
Second, the gold tariff fiasco has rattled a trillion-dollar market. The Trump administration will issue an executive order clarifying the situation, stating that gold and bar imports should not be subject to tariffs. This clarification further underscores the US's strategic focus on integrating crypto assets into the financial system.
Third, Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman sent a key signal: she supports three rate cuts this year and called for this process to begin in September. Last Saturday, she delivered two key policy messages: first, she explicitly expressed support for three rate cuts this year; second, she announced a conference on community bank reform on October 9th.
Technical aspects:
BTC: The surge and then decline seen last Friday and Saturday helped to alleviate some of the selling pressure within the previously concentrated trading range of 116K to 120K. Sunday's large-bodied bullish candlestick, which closed with strong volume, indicates bullish investment and confirms a valid breakout. Today's market continues its upward trend, having broken through the recent high of 120K, suggesting the possibility of upward acceleration. The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines have formed a golden cross, and the histogram has turned from negative to positive, signaling weakening bearish momentum and a bullish advantage, moving the market from a correction phase to an early bullish phase. If the histogram continues to expand, a stronger uptrend is expected. The weekly chart closed with a large bullish candlestick, reversing the previous week's losses. Overall, the weekly trend remains volatile and upward. The 4-hour chart currently shows a large bullish candlestick pattern, similar to that seen on July 10th. We should wait for the market to trade sideways or undergo minor corrections, and then consider buying on dips once the technical gaps are filled. During intraday operations, focus on the support at 121K - 120K on the bottom, and use this as a basis for bullishness; focus on the 122.5 - 123.5K position on the top.
ETH: After two weeks of correction, the weekly chart closed with a large bullish candlestick, marking a 21% gain, successfully breaking through the 4,000 mark. The daily chart is in a clear bullish trend, with a new major uptrend starting near 3,600 points. Multiple consecutive bullish candlesticks have appeared, accompanied by a bullish trend in the moving averages. Currently, the short- and medium-term moving averages are fully extended, with a wide angle, indicating an accelerating upward trend. Regarding trading volume, the MACD indicator has formed a golden cross and is diverging upwards, accompanied by a moderate increase in volume. The positive histogram continues to expand, and momentum continues to build. There is still room for the indicator to diverge upwards, so there is no need to worry about a direct reversal of the market in the short term. Ether has risen by over 20% this time. Even if it declines further, it will require a period of selling. This round of Ether is expected to reach a new all-time high near 4,800 points. The 4-hour chart continues to show a strong upward trend, and the K-line chart has not significantly deviated from the support of the moving averages, indicating a very healthy trend. In terms of intraday operations, focus on the support at 4320-4280 on the bottom and 4480-4520 on the top.
Altcoins: The altcoin market is currently experiencing a "selective bull run," centered around the Ethereum ecosystem and Layer 2. AI and infrastructure sectors are the primary focus for medium-term investment, while meme/emerging projects offer opportunities for short-term, explosive growth. The market experienced a weekend market shakeout, with most altcoins re-establishing their bottom-line defensive positions. Currently, Bitcoin is leading the upward trend, while altcoins are experiencing a period of sluggish growth. However, there are still opportunities for further gains. Last Friday, we launched our eighth round of investment for the year. With a profitable foundation already established, we will continue to utilize a rolling, penetrating rotation strategy to build our positions. In the Ethereum ecosystem's L2 sector, the two leading cryptocurrencies, ARB/OP, have recovered from their previous pullback, while SNX has maintained a relatively stable trend and warrants close attention. The AI crypto sector has tripled in value over the past two years, reaching $15 billion, and its recognition continues to grow. Strong projects like WLD/TAO, with their innovative structures and strong funding base, deserve special attention. In terms of decentralized financial infrastructure, XRP, AVAX, LINK, ALGO, and DOT, with their interchain connectivity and infrastructure value, are being listed by institutions as promising long-term targets. The MEME sector has seen significant volatility, while BONK, with its strong community foundation and technological breakthroughs, warrants close attention. Always remember that altcoins are for trading, not value investing. When trading opportunities arise, be bold and act decisively, but exit decisively when stop-loss orders are in place. In this community, please look for Fei Ge, Chuan Ge (V: DC-9536, DingTalk: dachuan001), and Da Bing (V: db77068, DingTalk: db77069). Specific strategies are welcome. For those who missed the opportunity to build positions in the previous seven rounds, the eighth round of layout has just begun. Don't make unwise moves that could lead to losses while others profit. Fei Ge's Rolling Penetration Rotational Strategy Camp offers 888 oil/quarter, and the Short-Term Spot/Contract Pilot Team offers 88 oil/month. Feel free to participate.
The cryptocurrency market fluctuates violently, so you need to be cautious when entering the market. The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. It is for sharing and communication only.
