The Fed's major reshuffle! Behind BTC's surge to $121,000, have the policy trump cards emerged?
On August 11, Bitcoin's price broke through the $121,166 mark, with a 24-hour increase of over 1.7%, and total market capitalization approaching $2.4 trillion. Just as the market was confused by the failure of the 'Santa Claus rally,' a major news broke in the crypto circle — Trump announced the candidates for the Fed chairman position a year in advance, with four 'pro-easing faction' candidates entering, signaling a policy shift!
The Fed is changing! Four candidates collectively 'release water.'
According to authoritative sources, Trump has narrowed the list of candidates for the next Fed chairman to four: former Fed governor Kevin Walsh, White House economic advisor Haskett, current board member Waller, and former World Bank president Malpass. All four unequivocally support loose monetary policy, echoing Trump's complaints that 'rate cuts are not fast enough.'
Among them, current board member Waller has become the biggest favorite. This 65-year-old policy flexible member has publicly opposed a 'wait-and-see attitude,' stating that 'if inflation is controllable, interest rate cuts should be accelerated.' Market predictions suggest that if Waller takes over, the Fed may continue its current pace of rate cuts or even increase easing efforts. The entry of 'old faces' like Walsh and Haskett is seen as Trump's 'gentle intervention' in the Fed's independence.
How does the policy shift ignite BTC? Historical patterns provide answers.
Fed policy changes have always been a 'weather vane' for the crypto market. Looking back at the last rate hike in July 2023, BTC price entered a major upward wave within three months; after the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December 2024, Bitcoin briefly corrected, but institutional funds continued to flow in, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF scale surpassing $52 billion.
The current market is in a 'rate cut expectation trading period':
Loose monetary policy benefits anti-inflation assets: Bitcoin, as 'digital gold,' has seen a surge in attractiveness amid expectations of USD depreciation. On August 9, Bitcoin briefly soared to $117,000, with Ethereum surpassing $4,200, and total market capitalization exceeding $4 trillion.
Institutional positioning accelerates: Harvard's endowment fund purchased 1.9 million shares of Bitcoin ETF, and MicroStrategy added 5,262 more Bitcoins, with institutional holdings reaching 37%.
Policy dividends continue to be released: Trump strongly promotes stablecoin legislation, which may open a new path for Bitcoin as 'digital dollars.'
Caution! 100,000 people liquidated, market sentiment remains fragile.
Despite the favorable policy environment, volatility in the crypto market has intensified. On August 9, over 100,000 people were liquidated due to leveraged trading, amounting to nearly $400 million. Analysts warn: Bitcoin remains a 'speculative asset,' with price fluctuations more reliant on market sentiment than on solid value support.
The pace of Fed rate cuts, the speed of Trump's policy implementation, and the direction of institutional funds remain key variables affecting BTC. If Waller accelerates rate cuts after being elected, Bitcoin could challenge $150,000; but if policies fall short of expectations, a short-term correction is inevitable.
Judge's personal view:
From a technical perspective, BTC price is closely following the BOLL upper band, facing short-term resistance at the $121,699 pressure point, and caution is needed for the risk of pullbacks. The support level of $118,000 is crucial; if breached, it may trigger a technical adjustment. The trading volume in the last 24 hours has increased to 54,000 contracts, indicating intensified bullish and bearish battles. Policy dividends and technical pressures coexist, and breakthroughs require sustained volume cooperation; otherwise, a fluctuating pattern will persist.
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