Bloodbath for shorts! After BTC broke 120,000, institutions went on a buying spree; retail investors must watch: Will it be 130,000 or a plunge this week?
The judge of the coin circle declares: "No pressure above BTC? Don't be fooled by appearances!"
Today, BTC surged past the 120,000 mark, a 3.8% increase in 24 hours, reaching a new high of $122,000! But undercurrents are stirring—the 4-hour candlestick closed negative, trading volume surged by 18%, and selling pressure is quietly rising. Is this surge a short squeeze from institutions or a trap for retail investors? Should retail investors chase the rise or buy the dip?
News: Three major bombs ignite the market!
Countdown to Fed rate cuts
JPMorgan overnight reversed its stance: A 25 basis point rate cut is a must in September, with three cuts planned within the year! If the unemployment rate exceeds 4.4%, a 50 basis point aggressive rate cut may occur. Historical backtesting shows that during the 2020 rate cut cycle, BTC surged by $64,000; can this liquidity feast be repeated?ETF fund frenzy
BlackRock's BTC ETF attracted $1.2 billion in a single week, setting a new high since the halving! CME futures open interest surpassed 15 billion, with call options accounting for 63%. Metaplanet has acquired 797 BTC, holding more than Tesla; corporate holding of coins may become a new engine.Ecological explosion hides danger
Ordinals protocol NFT daily trading volume surpassed 5,000, and Layer 2 locked amount broke 8 billion. However, Tether issued an additional 4 billion USDT in a week, leading to a stablecoin supply rate (SSR) exceeding 1.2; leveraged funds are piling up like a volcano, and a pullback may trigger a chain reaction of liquidations!
Technical outlook: Bull-bear showdown at 128,000
Daily signal: MACD golden cross expanding, Bollinger Bands opening upward, but RSI is overbought at 78; beware of the 17% pullback on April 2023!
4-hour alarm: MACD histogram continues negative growth, KDJ dead cross, MA10/MA30 shows downtrend. Key resistance at 128,000 with 3.7 billion options contracts gathered, a showdown between bulls and bears is imminent!
Life-and-death line: Support has moved up to 115,000; if breached, it may trigger the defense of 110,000; resistance at 128,000, if broken, 130,000 is just a step away!
Judge's perspective: Will we definitely reach 130,000 this week?
Institutions have taken control, retail investors need to be cautious!
CME open interest surged by 47%, while Canaan Technology's mining machine gross margin plummeted by 29%—under institutionalized computing power, miner selling pressure has dropped to an 18-month low. BTC is negatively correlated with the US stock VIX index at -0.73, enhancing its safe-haven attribute, but Google search interest is only 45, indicating a divergence in sentiment and funds that hides volatility risks!
Aggressive: Light long at 120,000 with a stop loss at 114,000, target 128,000-132,000, position ≤ 3%!
Conservative: Wait for a pullback to 115,000-118,000 to build positions in batches, with a single trade ≤ 20% of assets.
Red line warning: Spot position ≤ 50%, stay away from leverage!
Retail investors must ask: Should I go all in now or run away?
Don't be fooled by 'no pressure'!
128,000 is the dividing line; if it cannot break through, a short-term pullback to 110,000 may occur. However, if the (GENIUS Act) passes, BlackRock and others will increase their BTC allocation from 0.3% to 1%, injecting $80 billion directly and pushing it up to $150,000!
Technical judge's perspective:
Daily MACD golden cross is soaring, Bollinger Bands have opened an upward channel, but RSI is overbought at 78, and a dead cross has appeared on the 4-hour chart! 128,000 is the life-and-death dividing line—37 billion options are battling it out; if broken, 130,000 is within reach, but if it falls, the defense of 110,000 will begin! Conflicting technical signals suggest: Institutions are secretly distributing while pulling up, and retail investors chasing high may become bag holders! This week we either break through violently or wash out leverage; technical traders have fastened their seatbelts!
"99% of people don't understand what 'opportunity' means! When the cognitive crushing occurs, will you choose to be the prey or the hunter? #BTC重返12万 #特朗普加密新政
