TRON (TRX) is attracting strong attention after reaching an extremely important resistance area around $0.349–$0.352 — an area that witnessed over $5.4 billion worth of TRX traded just in June. This move not only energizes the market but also pushes TRX into a tug-of-war between buying pressure expecting a breakout and selling pressure taking profits after a more than 26% increase over the past three months.
Increased profit-taking pressure: RSI warns of overbought conditions.
With a 7-day RSI index of 75.21 — the 'overbought' zone according to technical analysis standards — it is not surprising that many investors begin to act on the principle of 'profit preservation'. Profit-taking activity became evident right after the price approached the $0.35 threshold, creating a wave of short-term correction.
Additionally, liquidity data from August 9 shows a net outflow of $2.95 million, reflecting a temporary change in investor sentiment. This further reinforces the view that the market is entering a 'cooling' phase after a hot run.
The $0.33 level: The strategic frontline for buyers.
Technically, the $0.33 level — corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level — is currently playing the most crucial support role in the short term. If this frontline is breached, selling pressure may drive TRX down to the $0.327 mark, which is a deeper support level according to the 38.2% Fibonacci.
Conversely, if TRX successfully recovers and closes above the $0.34 threshold, the market may quickly regain upward momentum and once again challenge the resistance area of $0.349–$0.352. This will be a potential breakout point to open a new bull cycle, especially if the altcoin market is broadly recovering.
TRON – the silent 'King of Stablecoins' is rising
Alongside short-term technical factors, TRON continues to assert itself as one of the most dynamic and practical blockchain networks in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. In July 2025, the TRON network processed stablecoin volumes up to $600 billion, with USDT accounting for a large portion.
More importantly: TRON currently holds 50% of the global USDT supply – a figure that not only reflects its level of trust but also serves as a 'strategic weapon' to help TRON consolidate its position in cross-border payments, remittances, and business transactions.
This dominance brings two strategic benefits:
Increased actual demand for TRX – as TRX is used to pay transaction fees.
Reinforcing the image of TRON as a fast payment network, low-cost, ideal for international remittances, especially in underbanked regions.
As financial institutions in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East seek alternatives to SWIFT, TRON emerges as an effective 'payment rail' ready for large-scale operation.
From Nasdaq to Tokenomics: TRON is 'playing on the big stage'
The listing of TRON Inc. on the Nasdaq is a strategic move, opening the door to traditional capital access. Additionally, the T-Rex 2X leveraged ETF could be a 'bridge' for institutional investors to easily access TRX without needing to manage cryptocurrency wallets themselves.
As of August 2025, more than 40 billion TRX have been burned, equivalent to 4.2% of the total supply. Following Proposal 102 — which halved block rewards — the annual inflation rate of TRX has been pushed down to just 1.29%, even lower than many traditional fiat currencies.
This is when the law of supply and demand speaks: as supply gradually decreases while actual usage demand (gas fees) rises, the intrinsic value of TRX has grounds to increase significantly in the long term.
However, it is not without resistance:
Whales have dumped about 390 million TRX in July – a signal to pay attention to.
The $1 billion stake sale by TRON Inc. raised investor doubts about the potential for indirect TRX sales in the future to offset development costs.
Technical analysis
In the short term, TRX is entering a consolidation phase after a strong growth streak, with key technical levels guiding the upcoming price action:
The nearest support level: $0.33 — if this level is breached, selling pressure may pull the price back to a deeper support area at $0.327, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Key resistance area: $0.349–$0.352 — this is an important barrier. A strong daily close above this area could confirm the breakout signal and open up new upward momentum for TRX.
Currently, the overall technical structure of TRX remains positive, with trading volume remaining stable, and no signs of negative divergence appearing on momentum indicators such as MACD or long-term RSI. This suggests that buying pressure is still present and the market has not entered an overheated state.
Notably, if Bitcoin continues to adjust and capital flows begin to shift toward altcoins – a scenario often seen in the early stages of an altcoin season – then TRON could become one of the first 'triggers', thanks to the institutional capital that has quietly flowed in early and its strategic position in the global stablecoin ecosystem.
TRX price forecast for 2026
Based on machine learning models and multivariate data analysis, Perplexity AI has proposed three potential price scenarios for TRON (TRX) by 2026. This model considers factors such as: adoption rate, stablecoin trading volume, macroeconomic environment, and the potential approval of financial products like ETFs.
Bullish scenario: $0.85 – $1.1
In the event that TRON achieves a series of pivotal strategic milestones, the TRX coin could very well enter a phase of explosive growth. Specifically, conditions that could create strong upward price momentum include:
USDT market share stabilizing or increasing, maintaining above 50%, confirms TRON as the leading global stablecoin payment platform.
The approved and successfully listed TRX ETF facilitates large institutional capital inflows from Wall Street and traditional investment funds into TRON.
The deflationary policy continues to be effective, with regular token burning, reduced supply, and well-controlled selling pressure.
The entire crypto market is entering a strong bull cycle, driven by positive sentiment, FOMO capital flows, and increasing public acceptance.
Expected outcome: If all the above factors converge, TRX could spike to the price range of $0.85 – $1.1, equivalent to a breakthrough growth level compared to the current price. This will be an important milestone, allowing TRON to escape the low valuation zone and enter the group of digital assets with real global influence.
Base scenario: $0.55 – $0.65
This is a neutral scenario where TRON continues to maintain stable growth but lacks strong breakout factors. In this environment, the network continues to develop positively, but the speed and scale of expansion are insufficient to create a sudden price surge.
The characteristics of this scenario include:
TRON continues to play a leading role in stablecoin payment infrastructure, especially with USDT, but has not shown a leap in volume or a breakthrough in new technology.
The adoption and usage rate of TRON is steadily growing, mainly from developing countries and small to medium-sized organizations, rather than large financial institutions.
The global cryptocurrency market remains stable, with no negative legal volatility or macro crises, but also lacks clear catalysts to push altcoin prices to explode.
Expected outcome: In this scenario, TRX could fluctuate in the price range of $0.55 – $0.65, reflecting cautious but sustainable growth, aligned with the long-term accumulation strategy and stable orientation of the TRON ecosystem.
Bearish scenario: $0.25 – $0.32
In the event that the market environment deteriorates, TRON may face several systemic risks that directly affect its network position, growth potential, and stable cash flow. Potential negative factors may include:
Declining stablecoin market share as competitors like Solana, Base, or other Layer-1s optimized for stablecoin payments accelerate development, attracting users and new projects, thereby eroding TRON's competitive advantage.
Increased regulatory pressure, especially in key markets such as the US, EU, or Asia, could lead to stablecoin and related infrastructure being tightly regulated or subjected to new restrictions – delivering a heavy blow to TRON's ecosystem.
USDT trading has significantly declined due to factors such as sanctions, fierce competition from CBDCs, or the rise of alternative stablecoins like USDC or PYUSD – reducing the demand for using the TRON network as an asset transfer layer.
Expected outcome: In the context of multiple negative factors occurring simultaneously, TRX price could drop to the range of $0.25 – $0.32, reflecting significant risk in maintaining its leading stablecoin payment infrastructure position, as well as attracting capital flows and developers within the ecosystem.
TRON is no longer a 'cheap altcoin'
TRON (TRX) is gradually stepping out from the shadow of a cheap altcoin to establish itself as an essential blockchain platform in the global payment ecosystem. From the role of a cross-border money transfer intermediary to holding a massive amount of stablecoins, TRON is proving its real value in the crypto world.
However, to truly conquer the $1 mark by 2026, TRX needs to converge on the following strategic factors:
Completely breaking the crucial resistance level at $0.35, which has repeatedly hindered the upward momentum.
Maintaining a leading position in the amount of stablecoins circulating on the network – an indicator showing the actual usage level of TRON in payments and DeFi.
Continuing to strengthen the token burn mechanism, contributing to a reduction in supply and creating upward price pressure.
Leveraging the wave of institutional investment through ETF products, as crypto becomes increasingly institutionalized.
Currently, all eyes are focused on the $0.33 mark – a price range that will determine whether TRON will break out again or enter a deeper correction before recovering.
It can be said that TRON is in a phase of strategic accumulation – where technical, fundamental, and macro factors are gradually converging. If the market continues to stabilize and TRON stays on track with its outlined roadmap, then the $1 mark is no longer a distant dream, but could very well become a feasible milestone in the next growth cycle.