– Trend: $ETH / $BTC reclaiming its 200D zone is the tell; a sustained push above 0.06–0.065 typically precedes alt rotation.
– Derivatives: Rising open interest with mostly neutral funding = real demand, not over‑levered froth. Watch futures basis (8–12% annualized = risk‑on).
– ETFs: Consecutive net inflows into spot ETH ETFs add steady bid; 5‑day positive streaks often align with breakouts.
– On‑chain: Post‑Dencun, L2 throughput dominates and fees are cents, improving UX; staked supply >25% tightens float. Restaking demand (EigenLayer) boosts yield.
– Supply: Post‑Merge issuance ~flat/deflationary when activity rises → constructive for price.
Levels & plan:
Support $3.2k–3.4k → hold bias long.
Break/close above $3.9k–$4.0k → momentum trigger toward $4.4k–$4.6k.
Invalidation: daily close < $3.2k. Consider a 10–12% trailing stop on strength.
