Bitcoin is nearing ATH as supply is limited, with Stock-to-Flow increasing by 75%, but network activity has not yet caught up with price increases.
Bitcoin prices are rising sharply due to miners' caution, reduced supply, and high demand, yet the increase in on-chain activity remains slow compared to prices. This raises questions about the sustainability of the current bullish trend.
MAIN CONTENT
Bitcoin prices are near ATH, with a Z-Score of +1.5σ, and prices are rising faster than network performance.
Miners are limiting sell-offs, reduced supply, and a 75% increase in Stock-to-Flow is driving the scarcity narrative.
Wallet addresses and on-chain activity are increasing, but the network needs to improve further to solidify a sustainable price increase trend.
What is the current state of Bitcoin prices?
Bitcoin is trading around the ATH mark, with a Z-Score of +1.5σ – a strong level, but not yet reaching the hot threshold of +2.5σ.
This indicates that Bitcoin still has room for growth before the upward momentum stretches thin. Prices have outperformed even though network activity has not truly exploded, reflecting the market's high expectations for BTC in this cycle.
Z-Score is an indicator that measures the standardized level of the current price compared to historical averages. A level of +1.5σ typically represents a hot phase but is safer than a level of +2.5σ – which is often a signal that the market is overbought and prone to reversal. According to CryptoQuant data, BTC has not yet entered the historical overbought zone.
“If the Z-Score is only at +1.5σ, the bullish market remains sustainable and has room for expansion. But when the Z-Score rises too high, investors should be cautious of reversal risks.”
— Bob Loukas, Bitcoin cycle market analyst, 2024 (source: bobloukas.com)
Is the price growth of Bitcoin in consensus with network activity?
The Activity-Price Divergence (APD) index is at -1.5, although it has improved from -2, indicating that prices are rising faster than on-chain network activity.
APD measures the growth divergence between price and network indicators such as transaction volume and active wallets. When APD is deeply negative, price growth lacks sustainability due to the absence of confirmation from network fundamentals. Although this gap has narrowed, it has not been completely eliminated, reflecting that the price increase primarily relies on new investment funds rather than strong core network improvements.
Historically, when price increases greatly outpace network performance, prices often need to drop or go sideways to wait for network activity to catch up to maintain the bullish wave. According to analysis from IntoTheBlock (2025), consensus between price and on-chain activity is one of the key factors ensuring strength and sustainability for the Bitcoin market.
What is the role of miners in the current price stability of Bitcoin?
Miners are supporting Bitcoin prices by reducing sell-offs, as reflected in the Miners' Position Index (MPI) at -0.46 – below the annual average.
Negative MPI means that the amount of BTC sold by miners is lower than usual. Although this index increased by 25.8% in 24 hours, it still reflects a strategy of holding coins rather than mass selling, helping to reduce supply pressure on the market. This move is particularly important as market volatility increases after Bitcoin enters the post-Halving phase.
“The ability of miners to control sell-offs drives price stability during sensitive market phases.”
— Ki Young Ju, CEO CryptoQuant, 2025 (source: CryptoQuant)
Miners' policy of hoarding Bitcoin may stem from the belief that prices will continue to rise, and the mining industry is optimizing costs after the Halving event. According to updated data from CryptoQuant, miners tend to sell heavily when costs exceed revenue or when reversal signals become clear – which has not yet reached that stage.
How is the scarcity story of Bitcoin reinforced by Stock-to-Flow?
Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio has increased sharply to 1.5923 million, which is 75%. This strongly reinforces the scarcity narrative of BTC.
Stock-to-Flow measures the ratio of the total amount of Bitcoin currently available to the amount issued annually. When S2F increases significantly, it means new supply is extremely limited compared to circulating reserves, increasing attraction and price expectations. This phenomenon typically occurs after Halving periods, when block rewards are halved, tightening new supply into the market.
“The Stock-to-Flow model has recorded strength in growth cycles, reflecting a scarcity foundation clearer than ever.”
— PlanB, S2F model analyst, 2025 (source: X.com/100trillionUSD)
The impact of S2F is more pronounced as institutions and individual investors compete to seek scarce assets amid macroeconomic instability. The growth of this index fosters the belief that, despite prices nearing ATH, the upward momentum from the scarcity effect could still attract new capital inflow.
Is on-chain activity improving to narrow the price gap?
On-chain activity of Bitcoin has improved, as shown by new wallets increasing by 25.47% and active wallets increasing by 11.11% in just one week.
At the same time, zero balance wallets decreased by 2.69%, meaning more wallets are genuinely holding BTC. This expansion reflects the attraction of new users, improved liquidity, and reinforced market resilience against volatility. If this trend continues, the gap between BTC prices and network performance is likely to narrow, providing solid support for long-term bullish waves.
The increase in active addresses is both a signal of absorbing new users and a reflection of the actual consumption of Bitcoin. Glassnode's research (2025) shows that sustainable market bullish phases are always accompanied by significant improvements in on-chain activity, liquidity, and expanded long-term holder community.
“Increased network activity is a positive sign fundamentally, providing Bitcoin with long-term support ahead of strong corrections.”
— Rafael Schultze-Kraft, Co-founder of Glassnode, 2025 (source: Glassnode Insights)
What still hinders Bitcoin's sustainable breakout?
Although indicators like S2F, the number of new wallets, and miners' sell-off rates are all positively improving, consensus between price and network performance has not yet been fully achieved.
This gap needs to be closed through continuous increases in actual transaction volume, frequent active wallets, and network movement volume. Otherwise, Bitcoin's upward momentum risks being interrupted or may need a corrective phase for network performance to catch up with price realities.
According to IntoTheBlock's analysis, this lack of consensus has historically been a potential reversal signal in previous cycles, especially when the market becomes overly optimistic about Bitcoin's future value without any real improvements on the Blockchain.
Current Index August 2025 Bitcoin Price Trend Assessment Near ATH Strong increase, expansion potential Z-Score +1.5σ Safe, not overbought MPI -0.46 Miners hold coins, limited supply Stock-to-Flow (S2F) 1.5923 million (up 75%) Strong scarcity New wallets +25.47%/week User absorption Active wallets +11.11%/week Recovery increase Zero balance wallets -2.69% Holder increase APD -1.5 Not fully in consensus
What should investors pay attention to in the current context?
Investors need to monitor both price and on-chain indicators, especially the increase of actual activity on the network.
When prices exceed the real fundamentals, it has historically been a warning signal in the cryptocurrency market – prices often undergo strong corrections when network activity does not improve in time. Therefore, caution, portfolio optimization, and risk management are essential during times of high volatility and when near ATH.
“The time of strong price increases is when you need to reassess on-chain data to avoid FOMO and set realistic expectations.”
— Willy Woo, Cryptocurrency data expert, 2025 (source: Woobull.com)
Setting profit-taking thresholds and appropriate risk management contributes to protecting investment gains against sudden market fluctuations or macro factors.
What is the scenario if the gap between network performance and Bitcoin price is narrowed?
If network indicators like the number of new wallets, active wallets, and liquidity continue to rise steadily, the likelihood of the market sustaining a bullish wave is high.
History shows that when new users continuously enter, along with miners controlling supply, the market has often recorded prolonged and more stable price increases. Additionally, macro factors such as stable interest rates, approval of Bitcoin ETF funds, and institutional cash flow will also contribute to reinforcing the bullish wave if combined with consensus from on-chain data.
However, if the network fundamentals do not keep pace, Bitcoin's price is likely to undergo a correction phase to alleviate excessive expectations before a new bullish wave forms, which is a rule corresponding to the heated phases of all financial markets.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Bitcoin's price relative to ATH?
Bitcoin is approaching ATH, with a Z-Score of +1.5σ indicating a strong upward trend but still having room for growth before entering the overbought zone.
How are miners impacting Bitcoin prices?
Miners reducing sell-offs, with the MPI index below the annual average, helps limit supply, creating stability for BTC prices.
What does the increasing Stock-to-Flow ratio signify?
Stock-to-Flow increased by 75% to over 1.59 million, indicating exceptionally limited supply after Halving, supporting long-term price increase expectations for Bitcoin.
How does on-chain activity impact the market?
Strong increases in new wallets and active wallets help expand the user base, increase liquidity, and reinforce the price foundation of BTC, especially during corrections.
What risks come from the gap between price and network activity?
If prices rise too far from network performance, the market may need to correct for actual activity to catch up, helping to normalize the bullish trend.
What is the optimistic scenario for Bitcoin?
If on-chain data continues to improve, the bullish wave could sustain. If it stops, prices need to adjust or go sideways to realign with the network.
What signs indicate a sustainable bullish market?
The consensus between price, the number of new wallets, active wallets, and long-held BTC is fundamental for a stable long-term bullish wave.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-tien-sat-ath-cme-ngan-can/
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