1. Current Market Situation
Price: After rallying from the $2,400 area, ETH is trading around $4,215, just below the strong $4,400 resistance level.
Momentum: MACD and buying volume remain positive, but the price is approaching a historically strong supply zone.
2. On-Chain Data (Exchange Metrics)
A) Exchange Supply Ratio – All Exchanges
In a steady downtrend since 2022, now around 0.16.
Interpretation: Investors are withdrawing ETH from exchanges → reduced sell-side liquidity → structurally bullish.
B) Exchange Supply Ratio – Binance
Unlike the global metric, Binance ESR has been rising since early 2025, now around 0.04.
Interpretation: Some holders are moving coins into Binance, possibly for short-term selling, arbitrage, or exchange-specific programs.
C) Exchange Netflow – Binance
Recent significant positive inflows.
Close to key resistance, this may indicate readiness for selling.
3. Contradictory Signal Interpretation
Long-term (structural): The continued drop in the all-exchange ESR supports a bullish macro outlook.
Short-term (tactical): Rising Binance ESR and net inflows warn of near-term selling pressure.
4. Possible Scenarios
Scenario A – $4,400 Breakout
Condition: Quick reduction in Binance net inflows or stabilization of Binance ESR.
Outcome: Break above $4,400 → next target $4,800 and potential retest of ATH.
Scenario B – Short-term Pullback
Condition: Persistent heavy inflows into Binance and rejection at $4,400.
Outcome: Correction toward $3,950–$4,000 support before another breakout attempt.
5. Summary
The data shows a bullish long-term trend combined with possible short-term selling pressure.
For short-term traders: Daily monitoring of Binance ESR and netflow is critical.
For long-term investors: The broader ESR downtrend remains positive.
Written by CryptoOnchain
