The recent price increase of Bitcoin mostly comes from the scarcity of supply on exchanges, rather than from strong new buying capital.
The market has witnessed increased institutional demand, exemplified by Harvard University's investment of $116.6 million in the Bitcoin ETF, while in Japan, regulatory barriers continue to delay the emergence of cryptocurrency ETFs.
MAIN CONTENT
The recent rise of Bitcoin is mainly due to a lack of selling liquidity, not due to outstanding new buying demand.
Harvard University has made a strong investment in Bitcoin ETF, demonstrating institutional trust even though the capital flow into these ETFs is generally cautious.
In Japan, the plan to launch cryptocurrency ETFs is still delayed due to regulatory issues, creating a behavioral difference between markets.
The price increase of Bitcoin: Due to supply shortages or new demand?
The latest data indicates that Bitcoin prices have risen significantly due to the lack of supply on major exchanges like Binance, rather than a strong surge in buying demand.
According to CryptoQuant, from March to May, spikes in Taker Volume reflected strong liquidity flows, especially after Bitcoin dropped to $75,000 in April. However, in June, these metrics gradually declined despite prices continuously setting new records, indicating that aggressive buying has diminished.
Notably, Limit Order Volume is also at a low level, reflecting that the number of sellers around the current price is very few.
"Such thin order books can cause prices to spike quickly if supply continues to tighten, but they also make the market susceptible to sharp declines when a sell-off trend emerges."
CryptoQuant analysis report, August 2025
Practical example from Binance, the low selling liquidity means that even a single large unexpected sell order can significantly impact the price, increasing volatility. This is a characteristic of many digital asset markets that have high expectations but temporarily low liquidity.
Harvard makes a significant investment in Bitcoin ETF: Implications for the institutional market
As supply tightens in the market, institutional investors continue to send signals of confidence in the cryptocurrency market, highlighted by Harvard University investing $116.6 million in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF.
According to the Q2 2025 report released by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the investment in Bitcoin ETF IBIT is currently the 5th largest stock, surpassing even Alphabet in Harvard's stock portfolio. This is also the first direct asset related to Web3 that this portfolio participates in, marking a significant adjustment compared to traditional giants like Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon.
"Harvard's move reflects the trend of large institutions increasingly viewing cryptocurrencies as a serious investment asset class, even as capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs show signs of stagnation in July."
Analysis from CoinShares, Cryptocurrency Fund Flow Report 2025
Although July recorded cautious capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, there was a time when BlackRock's Ethereum fund exceeded the Bitcoin ETF, yet Harvard's continued strong disbursement shows that institutions still maintain long-term confidence in Bitcoin's growth scenario.
Cryptocurrency ETF in Japan: Why is it still at a standstill?
In contrast to the excitement in the U.S., the Japanese market is still "stuck in place" in efforts to launch the first cryptocurrency ETF due to many regulatory barriers.
Previously, the media reported that SBI Holdings – one of the largest financial institutions in Japan – had filed for a dual Bitcoin-XRP ETF. However, SBI Holdings recently clarified that it has not submitted any applications and that the product is still in the conceptual stage.
"Contrary to some media reports, we have not submitted any applications for the establishment of ETFs related to cryptocurrency assets."
SBI Holdings representative, responding to Cointelegraph, August 2025
SBI Holdings leadership also clarified: The filing will only be made after Japanese financial and tax regulators complete the legislative amendments related to classifying cryptocurrencies as financial instruments under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act of Japan.
"In Japan, integrated cryptocurrency asset ETFs are only expected to be approved in a unified manner with feedback from financial and tax regulatory agencies... The filing will be made once these legal adjustments are completed."
SBI Holdings representative, Cointelegraph, 2025
According to the June 2025 proposal from the Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA), legal discussions continue to make progress, but the ETF launch date remains uncertain and may have to wait several more months.
Differences in institutional behavior: U.S. – Japan from an expert perspective
The gap between the U.S. and Japan in implementing cryptocurrency ETFs reflects a very different attitude of financial institutions and regulators.
In the U.S., major university funds like Harvard are willing to invest directly in Bitcoin ETFs, while in Japan, legal barriers prevent institutions from accessing this new product. According to Chainalysis 2025 report, the policy gap and the speed of cryptocurrency recognition are key factors influencing global capital flows.
"The more open legal system in the U.S. facilitates institutions to participate in cryptocurrency asset ETFs, laying the groundwork for liquidity growth, while the Japanese market still has many restrictions in terms of mechanisms."
Mr. Philip Gradwell, Head of Analysis at Chainalysis, Cryptocurrency Market Report for Asia – 2025
Accordingly, the pace of legal reform regarding digital financial products will be the decisive factor in the level of institutional capital participation in the upcoming Asian cryptocurrency sector.
What is the current liquidity and price volatility risk of Bitcoin?
The lack of selling supply on exchanges, especially Binance, has pushed Bitcoin prices to significantly high levels, but it also poses the risk of strong volatility when the market is thin.
During the period from March to early June, the volume of active buying transactions continuously reached new highs, indicating very good liquidity. However, the decline of these metrics alongside fewer limit orders signals an increase in the bid-ask spread, raising the risk of being manipulated by "whales."
In fact, during times when Bitcoin reached ATH historically, such as in 2021 and 2024, there was a recurring phenomenon: when supply on exchanges runs low, prices can be pushed up quickly, but they are also very sensitive to large unexpected sell orders.
"The combination of a lack of selling liquidity and intertwined institutional capital flows can create sudden deep price fluctuations, moving Bitcoin from one extreme to another in a short period."
Market analysis report AMBCrypto, August 2025
Comparing the factors driving Bitcoin prices: New demand vs. Supply crisis
To evaluate objectively, it's necessary to consider the main driving forces affecting Bitcoin prices currently, including: a sudden spike in buying (demand shock), or a situation of supply shortage (supply shock).
Criteria New Demand Increases Supply Crisis Number of Active Buying Transactions (Taker Volume) Increases rapidly to record levels May decrease or stabilize Selling Limit Order Volume Abundant Very low Impact on price volatility Prices rise steadily, stably Prices can spike, with large fluctuations Risk of reversal when a sell-off occurs Relatively low Very high Practical example 2025 Volume does not increase, but prices still rise sharply due to supply shortages Harvard invests, supply runs out, volatility spikes
By comparison, the current stage of Bitcoin leans towards a scenario of scarce supply, so traders need to be cautious of the risk of unusual price volatility, especially when large accounts decide to sell off in thin order books.
The role of Bitcoin ETF in global institutional investment strategies
The emergence of Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT has opened a direct access channel for major financial institutions, universities, investment funds, etc., into the cryptocurrency market, without facing the barriers of custody, risk management, and complex compliance.
For example, Harvard's investment in IBIT reflects an increasingly popular awareness that cryptocurrencies are an asset class worth considering in the portfolios of many reputable institutions. According to Fidelity Digital Assets (Global Digital Asset Outlook Report 2025), over 60% of large institutions in the U.S. say they are considering increasing their digital asset allocations next year.
"The presence of major educational institutions in Bitcoin ETFs will be an important signal to promote the sustainable development of the entire industry."
Ms. Christine Sandler, Director of Strategy at Fidelity Digital Assets, Crypto Policy Seminar 2025
Compared to traditional markets, ETFs help reduce the risk of storing Private Keys, increase transparency and regulatory compliance, thus creating long-term confidence for institutional capital inflows into the cryptocurrency sector.
The impact of legal policies on the cryptocurrency ETF market in Asia
Cryptocurrency ETFs are not just financial instruments, but also a litmus test for each Asian country's legal institutions.
If the U.S. has officially allowed multiple Bitcoin ETFs to be listed since early 2024, creating a breakthrough for institutional capital flows, then Japan is still cautiously completing the legal framework for classifying digital assets in the national financial system. According to JP Morgan Research, this delay risks steering cryptocurrency investment capital to markets with open laws, extending the gap in financial innovation between major economic centers.
The upcoming regulatory adjustment process in Japan will greatly impact the prospects for developing domestic cryptocurrency investment products, as well as the competitive ability to attract international capital.
Institutional capital flows and the future liquidity of the Bitcoin market
The relationship between the development of Bitcoin ETFs and the scarcity of selling liquidity is shaping a new trend for global institutional capital flows in the cryptocurrency market.
As institutions like Harvard, Fidelity, BlackRock, Invesco expand their positions in Bitcoin through ETFs, the capital flow becomes more stable and compliant compared to before. However, the long-term future of the market still depends on the ability to improve liquidity on major exchanges and proactive attitudes from international lawmakers.
Individual investors should note that, while institutional capital creates a new foundational area for Bitcoin prices, the liquidity shortage environment still poses a risk of significant volatility when the market encounters bad news, FUD, or sell-offs from whales.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main reason for Bitcoin's recent price increase?
The recent price surge is mainly due to a lack of selling supply on major exchanges like Binance, rather than a surge in new buying demand.
What does Harvard's investment in Bitcoin ETF mean?
The investment of $116.6 million in Bitcoin ETF reflects the trust of major financial institutions in digital assets and opens a wave of professional institutional investment.
Why are cryptocurrency ETFs in Japan still delayed?
Due to incomplete legal regulations, the product is still in the conceptual stage, awaiting reclassification of cryptocurrency assets according to Japanese regulations.
When can Japan launch its first cryptocurrency ETF?
There is no official time yet, as the legal framework needs to be completed; it is likely that the launch will be delayed for some time.
How does Bitcoin ETF affect the institutional market?
Bitcoin ETFs are a safe, transparent bridge for institutional investors to participate, reducing storage risks and enhancing compliance with financial regulations.
What impact does low selling supply on exchanges have?
Price manipulation can cause Bitcoin to soar, but it also makes the market sensitive to large sell orders, increasing the risk of strong price fluctuations.
What are the signs indicating a liquidity shortage in the market?
Low trading volume, decreasing Taker Volume, fewer sell limit orders near the price, and widening bid-ask spreads.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/etf-bitcoin-2-dong-thai-tac-dong-gia/
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