ETH 4,200 USD, this is the first time it has reached this price since the end of 2021, after 1,337 days—almost four years.

A review of my two key judgments on $ETH

The first wave was at $1500.

At that time, ETH dropped from $3500 to $1300, and the market was full of pessimism, with some even saying it was going to crash. The on-chain data looked poor, trading volume was declining, and sentiment was at a low point, but I felt this was an opportunity—because whether it was SOL, ADA, or XRP, although their market caps were catching up, their ecosystem depth, liquidity, and application implementation could not match ETH. As long as blockchain continues to develop, ETH's core position is hard to shake. At that time, I said very plainly: short-term prices can be mismatched, but long-term value does not lie.

The second wave was at $1900.
I mentioned the speculation of 'ETH changing hands' for the first time in a public setting. At that time, the Herfindahl index was updated, and I saw the concentration of chips lingering at a low level for a long time. With the ETF news landing and large funds entering, the price hardly rose. For me, this was a typical covert handover—old hands distributing, new hands taking over, the market appeared calm on the surface, but underneath it was completing a large-scale chip migration. At that time, I reminded: this kind of market is the easiest to misjudge, thinking there are no opportunities, but in fact, it is quietly restructuring the chip structure.

Now ETH has reached $4000, looking back at these two judgments, they are actually the same logical line—first confirming long-term value when sentiment is at its worst, then confirming trend turning points when the chip structure changes.

The former determined my confidence to heavily invest at low levels, while the latter allowed me to hold onto my chips during fluctuations without being shaken out.

As the market has come to today, this wave of ETH is no longer the original ETH. The trends, fluctuations, and control logic after the handover will be different from the past.

If we say $1500 was the starting point of undervalued value, then the handover signal at $1900 is the starting point of a new trend. $ETH