The CPI data released on August 12 may be the biggest factor influencing the market in the near term and is the only key data for this month.

The significance of this data lies not only in reflecting inflation itself but more crucially in whether it can become a 'passport' for the Federal Reserve to ease its policies. Once price pressures ease, there will be more compelling reasons to cut interest rates, and a weaker dollar along with improved liquidity will be a comprehensive positive for the cryptocurrency market.

Specifically, there may be two scenarios:

The first scenario is if the data is significantly lower than market expectations, indicating that inflation is cooling down, funds will begin to shift towards betting on easing assets. Typically, the quickest to react are high-risk, elastic assets, such as certain small-cap chain games, DeFi, stablecoins, and RWA themes, as well as the ETH-related ecosystem, which may rise first.

The second scenario is if the data is close to expectations or slightly higher, the market may first undergo an adjustment, with a short-term drop to release reactions, and then observe whether there are signs of stabilization, while sentiment may be subjected to short-term pressure.

It is important to note that in the few minutes after the data is released, market volatility is often quite severe, which is often caused by quantitative strategies and bots executing trades, and the direction may not be accurate, so it is not advisable to blindly follow the trend at this time.

The true market attitude often becomes clearer only after half an hour to more than an hour, once the U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index stabilize.