Rational Thoughts Behind Ethereum's Surge: Weekly W Bottom Validation and Short-Term Pattern Game

1. Risk Warnings in Frenzy: Reject FOMO, Opportunities Always Exist

The recent movement of the cryptocurrency has been nothing short of 'unbridled', but the more out of control the pace, the more one must be vigilant against the emotional trap of 'Fear Of Missing Out'—the market is never short of opportunities, if you miss one, just wait for the next; the risk of blindly chasing high prices far outweighs the potential rewards. When everyone is caught up in a frenzy, staying calm is the only survival rule (even if you have to 'slap yourself twice' to restrain the impulse).

2. Long-Term Cycle Setting: Key Validation of Weekly W Bottom

Do you still remember the previously mentioned weekly W bottom pattern? We are currently at a key moment for validation:

• Establishment Conditions: The weekly level must hold above the neckline at $4135 → W bottom pattern confirmation, with a technical measurement target pointing towards the previous high around $4877 (not a fantasy, but a reasonable target after the pattern breakout);

• Retracement Bottom Line: An upward movement will inevitably accompany retracements, but as long as it does not fall below $4135, the validity of the weekly W bottom continues, and the long-term bullish trend remains unchanged.

3. Short-Term Trading Strategies: Logic of Volume and Pattern Offense and Defense

• Long Position Strategy:

1. Breakout with volume above $4242 → Aggressive traders can go long on the right side; volume is the core of the breakout's validity (be cautious without volume);

2. Hourly level holds above $4235 → Targeting $4304 → $4392, advancing in steps, do not be greedy;

3. 4-hour level holds above $4194 → Effective support, any retracement is a buying opportunity; if it breaks and does not recover, then give up.

• Short Position Strategy:

1. Breakdown with volume below $4213 → Go short on the right side, closely monitor volume changes, and set proper stop-loss (to guard against pullbacks);

2. 4-hour level breaks below $4194 → Targeting $4135 → $4084, this level is the key target for short-term retracement.

4. 2-Hour Level Pattern Game: Invalidity and Trigger of Bearish Crab Pattern

The D point of the bearish crab pattern at $4250 on the 2-hour chart is key:

• Pattern Invalidity: Directly break above $4250 and consolidate above → Bearish signals are void, do not go short at this level;

• Pattern Trigger: Multiple upward spikes but the closing price does not hold above $4250 → Can attempt a small short position, once it holds, immediately stop loss, do not linger (the risk far outweighs the reward, not for amateurs).