The crypto market is buzzing! Trump has dropped a 'personnel bomb' by nominating confidant Moore to take over the Federal Reserve board, triggering strong expectations for a policy shift! At this moment, Ethereum (ETH) hovers at the critical point of $4173; will the power struggle become a new trigger point for the crypto market?
1. Trump's confidant seeks to rewrite Federal Reserve rules
On August 8, Trump announced the nomination of Stephen Moore, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to serve as a member of the Federal Reserve, replacing the departed Kugler. Moore holds a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard and is a key proponent of Trump's tariff policy, stating upon his appointment: 'The Federal Reserve should listen to the President!'
Moore's resume can be described as 'MAGA loyal':
Tariff Enthusiast: Dominates 'Reciprocal Tariffs' and firmly believes tariffs can promote economic growth and reduce deficits;
Federal Reserve Reformists: Support diminishing the independence of the central bank, making it easier for the President to replace board members;
Interest Rate Hawk: Has repeatedly defended Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve, stating the President never misses on interest rate issues.
Upon the announcement, the market reacted violently: the dollar plummeted, gold surged, and the crypto market focused more on how this 'Trump 2.0' would leverage Federal Reserve interest rate policy.
2. The Federal Reserve shifts policy, ETH faces a test in its trend
History shows that Federal Reserve interest rate decisions have a huge impact on the crypto market:
In December 2024, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points but hinted that in 2025 the number of rate cuts would be less than expected, causing ETH to plunge 6.8% on that day, with prices dropping from $3907 to $3617, resulting in liquidations of $700 million within 24 hours;
In January 2025, rumors of a 50 basis point rate cut pushed ETH up to $4108, but it later fell back due to cautious expectations.
With Moore now involved, expectations for rate cuts are heating up:
The tendency towards easing is obvious; Moore advocates that 'the President should lead on interest rates', and the market anticipates an earlier and more significant rate cut;
From a technical perspective, ETH is currently priced at $4173, close to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands ($4177.69). If it breaks through, it may challenge historical highs; if policies do not meet expectations, it could fall back to support at $3900.
3. The global trade war reignites, can ETH stabilize?
Trump's 'tariff weapon' is becoming a potential hidden danger for the crypto market:
On August 7, Trump signed an executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs of 10% to 50% on several countries, with key sectors like semiconductors still facing exemption controversies.
The market reacted quickly, with global risk assets significantly declining; Bitcoin's price fell from $115,000 to around $100,000, and Ethereum's price also dropped to about $3600.
Analysts point out that if trade conflicts continue to escalate, funds may quickly flow into safe-haven assets like gold and the dollar, putting the crypto market under pressure. However, on the other hand, if the Federal Reserve speeds up rate cuts to alleviate economic pressures from tariffs, ETH could be seen as a hedge against inflation, regaining investor favor.
4. How will the crypto community respond to this policy battle?
Pay close attention to the September Federal Reserve meeting: if Moore's nomination is approved and expectations for interest rate cuts rise, ETH could break through the $4200 mark;
Beware of the risk of policy falling short: if the rate cut is limited and the attitude is conservative, ETH may fall back to around $3800 support;
From a technical perspective, ETH's daily MA5 ($3242) has dropped below MA10 ($3251), indicating a short-term bearish trend, but MA20 ($3278) still supports the price, and the market may remain volatile.
The crypto market is politically charged, and Trump's personnel arrangements are a barometer for price direction. Is it a rise driven by policy tailwinds, or should we be wary of a pullback after good news is realized? Be prepared to seize the opportunity!
Currently, ETH is at $4173, close to the BOLL upper band of $4177.69; a breakout would challenge the historical high. If it doesn't break through, watch for support at $3900. A short-term death cross has appeared, but medium-term support remains strong, and policy direction will be key.
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