A bullish candle broke through $4000, and Ethereum officially broke away from Bitcoin to pursue an independent trend. Funds in the crypto world are staging a collective migration.
The market exploded at noon! ETH surged to around $4200, while BTC was sleeping in the $110,000-$120,000 range. Looking back, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has skyrocketed to 0.036, violently rising over 100% from the low in just four months. This kind of divide where ETH takes the meat and BTC gets the soup is extremely rare in the crypto world in the past three years.
1. Three major engines are driving up Ethereum, and institutions have secretly changed their positions.
Companies are crazily accumulating ETH. After Bitcoin became a standard configuration for institutions like MicroStrategy, smart money began to look for new valleys. Sanmu sharply pointed out three major advantages of ETH during the live stream: its price is cheaper than BTC allowing for more purchases, staking earns around 5% passively, and its technology is stable and secure.
ETH is the silver of the crypto world. Wang Buai metaphorically stated during a live stream on Jinse Finance: Bitcoin is like gold, but its price is too high; Ethereum, on the other hand, is like silver with strong industrial properties—cheap, practical, and with great potential. The logic of Russia incorporating silver into its strategic reserves is being replicated by institutions in their ETH allocations.
Stablecoins have become the invisible nuclear bomb of ETH. The concentration of giants like USDC and USDT issuing coins on Ethereum is no coincidence. Sanmu sees it clearly: 'The market has shifted from meme coin speculation to real value; the choice of stablecoins for ETH is due to its safety and reliability.'
As Coinbase's Base chain takes advantage of compliance to wildly吸引 stablecoin business, ETH is becoming the 'Apple Store' of global financial infrastructure. On-chain real financial demand is the fundamental strength that allows ETH to break away from BTC.
2. The technical analysis sends a rocket signal: $6400 is just a stop along the way.
The moment we broke through $4000 ignited the market. Analyst @ali_charts clearly warned: once we stabilize at $4000, the next target aims for $6400. More aggressive analysts even predict $8000-$13000 in Q4, although this requires ETH to rise by 261% again.
The key resistance area has become a springboard. The current repeated fluctuations of ETH in the $3900-$4000 range are seen by analysts as a 'bull market trap'—what seems like resistance is actually a shakeout, remarkably similar to the pattern before the breakthrough in May 2025.
Once the shorts are cleared out, the historical high of $4800 may actually lack substantial selling pressure. After the ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks through the 0.382 Fibonacci level, the medium-term target points to 0.05 (corresponding to ETH $5700) or even 0.088 ($16000)—the exchange rate is the hidden code to wealth.
3. Stay sober amidst the revelry: these risks are lurking in the shadows.
A liquidity siphoning crisis is emerging. Qie Ge splashed cold water during the live stream: 'After the approval of the ETH spot ETF for staking, it may siphon off liquidity from the mainnet.' When institutional users stake through the ETF to earn interest, on-chain gas fees and DEX activity may actually be suppressed—this is fundamentally different from the pure incremental funding logic of the BTC ETF.
The trust test of the POS transformation. Don’t forget, when ETH hit its high of $4800 in 2021, it was still under the POW mechanism. Now, although POS is energy-efficient, node outages and L2 failures still occur. The degree of decentralization and market confidence require longer validation.
There are also hidden concerns in the technical analysis. The 4-hour chart shows ETH approaching the overbought zone, while Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D) remains at the sensitive level of 62%. If Bitcoin suddenly rebounds, it may disrupt ETH's independent rhythm—especially when the Fed cuts interest rates in September; we need to be wary of a repeat of the 'buy the expectation, sell the news' scenario.
Lao Zhao's viewpoint:
Is the real altcoin season knocking at the door?
Money flow never lies: Bitcoin's dominance has fallen below 58%, while old altcoins like XRP and DOGE have surged over 7% in a single day—ETH's breakout has ignited the charge of the altcoin army.
When the ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks through the three-year downtrend line, when institutions classify ETH as an 'income-generating asset', and when stablecoins' daily trading volume on the Ethereum network exceeds $10 billion—we are witnessing not only a technical breakthrough but also a reconstruction of blockchain value logic.
But remember: a bull market does not bury the awake, it only buries the greedy. Pay attention to the $110,000 Bitcoin support line; if it breaks, it may trigger a chain reaction; for those holding ETH, keep an eye on the $3500 trend support—if you can hold it, the stars and the sea will be yours.
At this moment, do you smell the smoke of the altcoin season?
There are no gods in the crypto world, only smart people who can read the signals. Lao Zhao’s articles don’t brag or paint fantasies; they only teach you practical survival skills. Follow Lao Zhao for daily strategies to get on board in advance.#ETH突破4000 $ETH
