Bitcoin has recently entered a correction phase, market momentum has weakened, trading volume has shrunk, and funding rates remain low, indicating that the market structure is becoming more relaxed. With the seasonal disturbances in August combined with external uncertainties, short-term sentiment has significantly turned cautious. From a technical perspective, the $112,000 support level previously played a role during the initial pullback, but the rebound strength was insufficient. This support level may face another test, and if it fails, the market's focus may shift to the $106,000 range.
The repricing of U.S. economic growth expectations may become a key factor in the resurgence of Bitcoin volatility. Currently, certain areas of the U.S. economy face substantial slowdowns, with the ISM manufacturing index consistently in contraction territory and limited expansion in non-manufacturing indicators. Recent employment data has also seen significant downward revisions. The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to potentially cut interest rates in September are gradually strengthening, but no clear signals have been released yet, which may lead to continued consolidation.
In addition, some publicly traded companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin have seen a contraction in their net asset value (NAV), which may weaken their ability to raise funds by issuing new shares to increase their Bitcoin holdings. In the short term, oversold technical indicators may suggest a possibility of a rebound, but I remain cautious about the sustainability of the rebound and lean towards the belief that prices will continue to consolidate. Investors need to patiently wait for clear bottom signals or for market momentum to recover.
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