Based on token economics and market environment analysis, BSU is expected to launch at a price of $0.20-0.50. In the short term (1-3 months), it may drop to $0.10-0.25 under unlocking pressure. In the long term (6-12 months), if the project gains traction, it may rise to $0.30-0.70. Key influencing factors include initial liquidity, unlocking timeline, on-chain activity, and overall performance of the Web3 gaming sector.

Price Trend Segmentation Forecast

Phase One: Initial Launch Period (August 9, 2025 - End of August)

Price Range $0.20 - $0.50 Driving Factors • Binance Alpha Initial Effect <br>• Airdrop FOMO Sentiment <br>• Baby Shark IP Brand Premium Circulating Supply ~100,000,000 BSU (approximately 11.8%) Estimated FDV $20M - $50M Risk Warning: Extremely high volatility, lack of historical price reference

Technical Analysis Key Points:

  • Initially traded only on a few exchanges like LBank, limited liquidity lbank

  • Alpha Points high threshold mechanism may limit initial selling pressure

  • Expected first-day amplitude 50-100%, trade carefully

Phase Two: Adjustment Period (September 2025 - November)

Price Range $0.10 - $0.25 Major Pressures • Team and Investor Unlock Begins <br>• Airdrop Users Take Profits <br>• Web3 Gaming Sector Slump Circulating Supply ~300-400,000,000 BSU (35-47%) Key Unlock begins 5 months later for seed round and private placement

Unlocking Timeline Analysis:

Time Node Unlock Categories Unlock Volume Cumulative Circulation Price Impact TGE Instant Unlock ~100M 11.8% Benchmark TGE + 5 months Seed/Private Placement Begins +102M 23.8% Moderate Selling Pressure TGE + 11 months Team/Advisor Begins +153M 41.8% Large Selling Pressure

Phase Three: Value Reversion Period (December 2025 - August 2026)

Price Range $0.30 - $0.70 Recovery Conditions • Mainnet game launch gains user recognition <br>• On-chain activity significantly increases <br>• Mainstream CEX listings Circulating Supply ~600-700,000,000 BSU (70-82%) Valuation anchor compared to similar GameFi projects FDV

Valuation Comparative Analysis

Comparable Project Valuation Table

Project FDV Daily Active Users Game Type Valuation Multiple Axie Infinity $1.2B 30K Battle/Collect 40K/DAU The Sandbox $800M 15K Metaverse/Build 53K/DAU Immutable X $600M 25K NFT Trading 24K/DAU BSU Target $200-500M 10-50K Casual/Metaverse 4-50K/DAU

Valuation Reasonableness Assessment:

  • If BSU reaches 10K DAU, with a multiplier of 25K/DAU, the reasonable FDV is $250M, corresponding to a token price of $0.29

  • If it reaches 50K DAU, with the same multiplier, FDV could reach $1.25B, corresponding to a price of $1.47

  • Considering unlocking dilution, the actual price needs to be discounted by 20-30%

Key Risk Factor Analysis

1. Technical Delivery Risk (High)

  • Token Terminal data shows 30-day code submissions are 0 tokenterminal

  • Mainnet delays may trigger a drop of 20-40%

2. Market Environment Risk (High)

  • Web3 gaming daily active users down 17% YoY, financing plummets 93% coindesk

  • Overall sector valuation under pressure

3. Liquidity Risk (Medium-High)

  • Initially traded only on a single exchange, coincarp

  • Insufficient depth may lead to high slippage

4. Regulatory Risk (Medium)

  • SEC's new guidelines may categorize game tokens as securities cointelegraph

  • Compliance uncertainty affects long-term development

Trading Strategy Recommendations

Short-term Strategy (1-4 weeks)

Buying Range: $0.15-0.25 Take Profit Target: $0.35-0.45 Stop Loss Position: $0.12 Position Ratio: 3-5% of Total Assets

Medium-term Strategy (3-6 months)

Buying Timing: Validation of on-chain activity after mainnet launch Target Price: $0.50-0.80 Risk Control: Monthly assessment of development progress, reduce positions promptly if below expectations Position Ratio: 5-10% of Total Assets

Long-term Strategy (6-18 months)

Conditions: Validate sustainable user growth and economic model Target: FDV reaches $500M-1B level Configuration: Consider heavy investment only after fundamental improvement is confirmed

Key Monitoring Indicators

On-chain Data Indicators

  • Daily Active Wallets: Target >1000 (currently only 1)

  • NFT Trading Volume: Monthly >$100K

  • Token Circulation Rate: Healthy range 5-15%

Fundamental Indicators

  • User Retention Rate: 7-day retention >30%, 30-day retention >15%

  • Development Activity: GitHub weekly submissions >10 times

  • Cooperation Progress: Mainstream CEX Launch Timeline

Market Indicators

  • Market Making Depth: Orders over $50K

  • Token Concentration: Top 10 addresses hold <50%

  • Community Heat: Twitter followers monthly growth >5%

Conclusion and Investment Recommendations

Core Viewpoint: BSU has a certain foundation with its super IP and endorsement from well-known institutions, but faces triple challenges in technical delivery, market environment, and liquidity.

Recommended Strategy:

  1. Airdrop Participation: Actively participate in Binance Alpha airdrop to obtain low-cost tokens

  2. Observation Verification: Focus on on-chain activity after mainnet launch