Core Judgment

Current Price: $4,210 (August 10, 2025) | Technical: Strong but overheated | Fundamental: Significant inflow of institutional funds | Expected Range: $4,500-$5,000

Ethereum is in a strong bullish cycle, with a 50% increase over the past 30 days, but technical indicators show short-term adjustment pressure. The key in the next three months lies in the smooth execution of the Fusaka upgrade and the Federal Reserve's policy shift.

📊 Technical Analysis

Current Technical Status

Indicator Value Signal Notes RSI(14) 70.7 🔴 Overbought, close to overbought area, needs adjustment MACD +219.8 🟢 Continuous expansion of bullish signals Price vs. Moving Average exceeds 8-60% 🟢 Strong all major moving averages are bullishly aligned ADX 40.7 🟢 Strong trend trend strength is good

Key Price Levels

  • Resistance Level: $4,300-$4,333 (looking towards $4,903 after breaking through)

  • Support Level: $4,163 (recent) / $3,760 (20-day moving average) / $3,340 (major support)

Technical Conclusion: Strong trend but short-term overheating, expected to continue upward after consolidating in the $4,000-$4,300 range. tradingview

🏛️ Fundamental Driving Factors

Record Inflows into ETFs

Key Data on Inflow Scale During Time Period August 8 $461 million single-day historical record, ETHA leads with $254.7 million past 10 days $4.1 billion + July 22 set a single-day record of $533 million institutional holdings account for 1.6% of total supply enterprise treasury allocation trend accelerates

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Healthy On-Chain Activity Indicators

  • 24-hour Trading Volume: $44.8B (accounting for 8.9% of market cap)

  • Trading Volume after July Adjustment: $238B, a 70% month-on-month increase, the highest since December 2021

  • Staking Status: 29.67% of supply staked, number of validators 1,043,000

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🗓️ Key Event Timeline for the Next Three Months

Date Event Market Impact August 21-23 Jackson Hole Meeting Federal Reserve policy guidance, impacting macro risk appetite August 26 SEC decision on BlackRock ETF physical redemption approval = inflow catalyst; rejection = short-term risk August 31 Fusaka client candidate version freeze delay will postpone mainnet or compress test buffer September 17 Federal Reserve FOMC meeting 90% probability of first rate cut by 25bp September Sepolia and Holesky testnets successfully fork to enhance market confidence November 5-12 Fusaka mainnet upgrade Gas limit increased by 5 times, PeerDAS launched November 17-22 Devconnect Buenos Aires technical progress report and future roadmap

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🎯 Price Prediction and Scenario Analysis

Analyst Prediction Summary

Institutional/Analyst 3-Month Target End-Year Target Preconditions LD Capital $4,500 $5,000 Baseline Scenario FXStreet $4,250-$4,500 $5,000-$6,000 ETF inflows continue Technical Analysis $4,300 breach $4,900+ upward trend continues bullish scenario $5,500+ $6,000-$7,000 perfect execution + rate cut + ETF

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Scenario Analysis

🟢 Optimistic Scenario (Probability 35%): $5,500-$6,500

  • Fusaka upgrade executed perfectly, Gas costs significantly reduced

  • Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25bp in September, another 25bp cut in December

  • Continued large-scale inflows into ETFs, average monthly $1.5-2 billion

  • Regulatory environment further improves

🟡 Baseline Scenario (Probability 45%): $4,500-$5,000

  • Fusaka upgrade smooth but with slight delays

  • Federal Reserve moderately cuts rates, macro environment stabilizes

  • ETF inflows slow but remain positive

  • Maintaining equilibrium with competitors like Solana

🔴 Pessimistic Scenario (Probability 20%): $3,200-$3,800

  • Technical issues or significant delays in the Fusaka upgrade

  • Federal Reserve maintains a tightening stance or economic recession

  • Deteriorating regulatory environment, significant outflows from ETFs

  • Competitors seize more market share

⚠️ Risk Factors

Technical Risks

  1. Fusaka Upgrade Execution Risk: Any significant delays or technical issues will affect the expansion narrative

  2. Network Congestion: July Gas fees soared to 820,000 Gwei, need to pay attention to network capacity

Market Risks

  1. Technical Overheating: RSI over 70, short-term adjustment pressure

  2. Competitive Pressure: Solana accounts for 51% of on-chain fee revenue, fee competition intensifies

Macro Risks

  1. Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty: Overly optimistic rate cut expectations may face disappointment

  2. Regulatory Risk: SEC still has variables in key decisions on ETF physical redemption, etc.

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📈 Investment Strategy Recommendations

Short-term (next 1 month)

  • Strategy: Cautious holding, focus on consolidation in the $4,163-$4,300 range

  • Key Level: Falling below $3,760 requires reevaluating the trend

  • Catalyst: SEC decision on August 26, Jackson Hole meeting

Medium-term (2-3 months)

  • Strategy: Aggressive allocation, focus on Fusaka upgrade progress

  • Target: $4,500-$5,000 range, breaking through $5,000 looks towards $6,000

  • Risk Control: Timely stop-loss when Fusaka experiences significant delays

Allocation Ratio Recommendations

  • Conservative: 20-30% (focus on stable returns)

  • Balanced: 40-50% (balance risk and return)

  • Aggressive: 60-70% (seeking high returns)

Summary: Ethereum is at a key point transitioning from a speculative asset to an institutional-grade store of value. Technical upgrades, institutional adoption, and macro environment are three catalysts supporting the upward space in the next three months, targeting the $4,500-$5,000 range. However, close attention should be paid to the execution of the Fusaka upgrade and short-term technical adjustment risks.

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