According to the prediction platform Polymarket, the likelihood of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving the Ripple ETF soared to nearly 89% on August 8. This development occurred just hours after the SEC reached an agreement with Ripple to end a lawsuit that had been ongoing since 2020. Observers believe that the conclusion of this legal dispute has removed a major obstacle that was previously seen as a significant reason for the SEC's rejection of the Ripple ETF.

Prior to August 6, the predicted probability had been above 70%, but after reports that SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw voted against it, the chances briefly dropped to 62%. However, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that this would have little significant impact, as Crenshaw is in the minority, and he estimates the actual approval probability to be 95%.

Meanwhile, this positive news also drove the price of XRP up over 12%, reaching $3.36, before falling back to $3.24. Many investors anticipate that XRP may challenge or even break the historic high set in July.