This morning I realized that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins all corresponded one by one!
Today's article analyzes the four-year cycle of Bitcoin and the past and present of Ethereum and altcoins in detail!
Everyone is welcome to take screenshots as proof; this article will be pinned long-term!
I. Will Bitcoin exceed 123218 before September?
Historically, Ethereum either peaks simultaneously with Bitcoin or lags behind Bitcoin to peak (can be delayed by more than 15-30 days), there has never been a case where Ethereum peaks first while Bitcoin has not yet peaked.
Ethereum's super cycle 1-4-XX-A wave has now completed the internal sub 5 waves, the sub 5 wave has either ended or will end around August 11, the Bull Demon King cannot stand above 123218 in a short time unless there is some unexpected major positive news.
Personally, I boldly speculate: Bitcoin will not reach above 123218 before September!
II. Key Time Nodes: Time is more important than position
Gann theory believes that time is more important than position!
(1) September 5-11, 2025, around September 15, 2025
(2) October 2025, November-December 2025.
(3) September 2026 or December 2026
(4) November-December 2028-2030
III. The Four-Year Cycle Continues: The Secrets of Bitcoin
The four-year cycle of Bitcoin is indeed still ongoing, but because Bitcoin has now become a component of beautiful stocks, the boundaries are no longer clear, becoming very blurred!
Currently in the decline of the super cycle 3-4-Z wave, after the end of the super cycle 3-4-Z decline comes the super cycle 3-5 wave.
The true bottom of the super cycle 3-5 wave may be advanced to start between September 5 and September 11, 2025, but the real outbreak of the super cycle 3-5 wave will occur around September 15, 2025.
The super cycle 3-5 wave originates from interest rate cut speculation, ideally ending in November-December 2025, and it won't end until after October 2025 at the earliest.
After the end of the super cycle 3-5 wave is the super cycle 4 wave, with the super cycle 4 wave expected to decline to 74500 in September 2026 or December 2026, with extremes at 55700-66700.
After the end of the super cycle 4 wave comes the super cycle 5 wave, with a target for the super cycle 5 wave set for November-December 2028, located at 190-200K.
IV. Small Bull Rebirth: The Secrets of Ethereum
[Short-term Trend of Ethereum] See the above chart, within the super cycle 1-4-XX-A wave, the internal sub 5 waves have already emerged, currently in the sub 5 waves, the bottleneck is 4071 (August 9), the monthly Bollinger upper band is 4280-4320 (around August 11).
[Long-term Trend Script of Ethereum's Super Cycle 1-4 Waves]
(1) Ethereum is currently in the historical super cycle 1-4 wave: for the entire super cycle 1 wave, it is a bear market, but for the super cycle 1-4-XX wave, it is a small bull market.
(2) Currently in the super cycle 1-4-XX wave, more accurately at the end of the super cycle 1-4-XX-A wave or the beginning of the super cycle 1-4-XX-B wave.
(3) The target of the super cycle 1-4-XX-A wave is set at 4071-4100 (already reached, with the possibility of reaching the peak) or near the monthly Bollinger upper band of 4280-4320.
(4) The downward target of the super cycle 1-4-XX-B wave is set at 2400-2500-2900-3000.
(5) The true bottom of the super cycle 1-4-XX-C wave may be advanced to start between September 5 and September 11, 2025, but the real outbreak will occur around September 15, 2025. The upward target of the super cycle 1-4-XX-C wave is at 4850-5000-5540 (400% of 1385)-6000, starting from the super cycle 1-4-XX-B wave with 100% upward amplitude, ideally ending in November-December 2025, and it won't end until after October 2025 at the earliest.
(6) After the end of the super cycle 1-4-XX-C wave, it means the entire super cycle 1-4-XX wave has also ended, indicating a decline in the super cycle 1-4-Z wave.
(7) The downward target of the super cycle 1-4-Z wave is set at 2200-2780-2850-3000 in September 2026 or December 2026.
(8) After the end of the super cycle 1-4-Z wave, it means the entire super cycle 1-4 wave bear market has also ended.
(9) After the end of the super cycle 1-4 wave, the super cycle 1-5 wave bull market begins, the super cycle 1-5 wave is the last wave of the bull market within the super cycle 1 wave, with targets set for November-December 2028-2030, located at 6000-8000-9000.
V. The Long Journey of Altcoins: The Secrets of Altcoins
Are altcoins in a bear market or a bull market? Don't look at Bitcoin or Ethereum; they must be analyzed separately. The only basis for judging whether altcoins are in a bear market or a bull market are the three secret charts!
The three secret charts were first proposed in the article (98399.23 again becomes a god, this is just the beginning, not the end! The long bear road, when will the season of fish, shrimp, and crabs come? The three secret charts reveal the harsh truth!)
Bitcoin is Bitcoin, Ethereum is Ethereum, stablecoins are stablecoins, and ordinary altcoins are ordinary altcoins! Don’t think the bull market for altcoins has arrived just because Bitcoin and Ethereum are strong; the truth is far from what you imagine!
Conclusion: Altcoins are still in a bear market, not in a bull market!
What criteria should be used to quantify the performance of altcoins? This chapter is very important; everyone should read it carefully!
(1) Bottoming period of the bear-to-bull transition
The bottoming period of the bear-to-bull transition refers to [after the last wave of small bull appears, the decline is no longer huge enough to be despairing, and there is a very obvious bottom, anyone can know that is the lowest point, and the larger the market cap, the more obvious the bottom. However, this stage will repeatedly annoyingly swing sideways, many will not leave the sideways range for a long time].
This is the accumulation period for the Zhuang family, the most testing time, very easy to wash people off their cars, you can use wave theory + Gann theory + Wyckoff accumulation model + Chan theory + high|win|rate|trading|models to comprehensively connect. The bottoming period is followed by the real starting phase of the big bull market!
Historically, the bottoming period for the bear-to-bull transition is 8-9 months; can you endure it?
(2) Overall situation of ordinary fish, shrimp, and crabs secrets (fish, shrimp, and crabs ranked within the top 50 by market cap)
To analyze the overall situation of fish, shrimp, and crabs, it is necessary to exclude the Bull Demon King, various stable fish, shrimp, and crabs from the overall market cap of fish, shrimp, and crabs in the blockchain continent; this is the true overall market cap situation of ordinary fish, shrimp, and crabs.
In theory, we should remove XRP and BNB, which are two very large fish, shrimp, and crabs by market cap; otherwise, it will lead to certain degrees of distortion, but in practice, I do not see chart data sources that meet my requirements, so I have to give up.
As shown in the figure, everyone should comprehend it well, the latest chart has been updated, this chart represents the overall situation of fish, shrimp, and crabs within the top 50 by market cap:
Currently still in the bear market that started in March 2024.
From April to the end of July or early August is the first small bull. The internal structure is not a push wave, so after rising, it still needs to fall;
Second small bull for fish, shrimp, and crabs from September to October, allowed to not have new lows, horizontal adjustment.
The real transition from bear to bull will begin in January-March 2026; the bull market's bottoming period lasts 8-9 months;
The historical lowest point will appear in December 2025 or January-March 2026.
The next low point will appear in September-December 2026, marking the true beginning of the bull market.
(3) Situation of small-cap fish, shrimp, and crabs secrets (fish, shrimp, and crabs ranked 50-100 by market cap)
Based on the overall market cap situation of ordinary fish, shrimp, and crabs, excluding the top 50 fish, shrimp, and crabs, we arrive at the overall situation of small-cap fish, shrimp, and crabs ranked 50-100 by market cap, as shown, everyone should comprehend it well, the latest chart has been updated:
Currently still in the bear market that began in March 2024.
From April to the end of July or early August is the first small bull. The internal structure is not a push wave, so after rising, it still needs to fall;
Second small bull for fish, shrimp, and crabs from September to October, most have new lows, but allowed to not have new lows, horizontal adjustment.
The real transition from bear to bull will begin in January-March 2026; the bull market's bottoming period lasts 8-9 months;
The historical lowest point will appear in December 2025 or January-March 2026.
The next low point will appear in September-December 2026, marking the true beginning of the bull market.
The overall rise of small-cap fish, shrimp, and crabs in the small bull is slightly worse than the overall market cap situation of ordinary fish, shrimp, and crabs, meaning that if not sure, the cost-performance ratio of fish, shrimp, and crabs in the bear market small bull, which are in the top 50 by market cap, is better and more certain.
(4) Situation of micro-cap fish, shrimp, and crabs secrets (fish, shrimp, and crabs after the 100th market cap)
Based on the overall market cap situation of ordinary fish, shrimp, and crabs, excluding the top 100 fish, shrimp, and crabs by market cap, we arrive at the overall situation of micro-cap fish, shrimp, and crabs below the 100th market cap, as shown, everyone should comprehend it well, this chart is the one worth our repeated study, the latest chart has been updated:
In 2024, there will not be a bull market for micro-cap fish, shrimp, and crabs after the 100th market cap; it will only be a significant rise during the bear market that began at the end of 2021, which is very heart-wrenching and despairing.
Currently still in the bear market that began at the end of 2021.
From April to the end of July or early August is the first small bull. The internal structure is not a push wave, so after rising, it still needs to fall;
Second small bull for fish, shrimp, and crabs from September to October, most have new lows, but it is allowed to not have new lows, horizontal adjustment.
The real transition from bear to bull will begin in January-March 2026; the bull market's bottoming period lasts 8-9 months;
The true bottom will only be reached in September-December 2026, marking the real beginning of the bull market.
The overall rise of micro-cap fish, shrimp, and crabs in the small bull is much worse than that of small-cap fish, shrimp, and crabs, meaning that if not sure, it is not recommended to connect with fish, shrimp, and crabs beyond the 100th market cap during the bear market small bull, as the uncertainty is high and it is easy to follow the decline instead of the rise.
(5) Conclusion
The way of heaven has a cycle; if you seek the sword by carving the boat, my advice is:
<1> In September-October 2025, there will be a second small bull for fish, shrimp, and crabs. During the small bull, if you are not sure, it is recommended to connect with fish, shrimp, and crabs within the top 50 by market cap, followed by those in the top 100, and not to connect with those beyond the 100th market cap.
In December 2025 or January-March 2026, there will be a third small bull; during the small bull, if you are not sure, it is recommended to connect with fish, shrimp, and crabs within the top 50 by market cap, followed by those in the top 100, and not to connect with those beyond the 100th market cap.
<3> After the end of the third small bull, the period before the transition from bear to bull market (no later than December 2026) is the bottoming period, during which it is necessary to connect with the Bull Demon King, various stable fish, shrimp, and crabs in the top 50, top 100, and beyond the 100th market cap reasonably, aiming to obtain a larger upward amplitude while ensuring a basic bottom!
<4> What specific fish, shrimp, and crabs should be connected at each stage? Everyone should think for themselves; the circle will provide more detailed foolproof guidance (sector matching, fish, shrimp, and crab matching, connection timing and location, disconnection timing and location, wave analysis charts, comprehensive predictions of time and space, etc.)!
VI. To forge iron, one must be strong
As the sect master of Xiaobai studying point positions, I am a practitioner of wave theory, Chan theory, Wyckoff trading method, and Gann theory, the pioneer of high win-rate trading models, the originator of BBI+KC trend change channel lines, DC cycle pioneer, supplemented by CCI advanced trend lines, improved Fibonacci fan fitting speed and resistance lines, and advanced trend change indicators, discussing the sustainable path to always earn a share of money!
To forge iron, one must be strong; only by improving cognition can one successfully traverse through bull and bear markets. We emphasize knowledge sharing, cultivating independent thinking; learning and accumulating during the bear market, and becoming others' dreams in the bull market. We welcome like-minded individuals who agree with the values of the Xiaobai Learning Point Community, willing to learn and cultivate independent thinking abilities; only when you convert this knowledge and skills into your own accumulation can you have the ability to think independently and avoid becoming a pawn!
💡 Note: Investing is like walking a dark road; always carry the lantern of 'risk awareness,' stay away from trading fog, and refuse to blindly chase the light.
Creating articles is not easy; reading an article only takes a few minutes, but writing an article takes several hours. If you agree with our community, feel free to give a thumbs up and share below! Your support is my motivation for creation!
