Ethereum has finally stabilized above the $4000 mark, a threshold that has spanned eight years and has become a 'life-or-death trial ground' for global retail investors. Today's breakthrough is truly worth noting—one must remember that over the past eight years, it has knocked on this door three times and returned empty-handed: a 65% plunge in 2021, two retreats exceeding 40% in 2024, and even a stumble here in July this year.
Now the attention of the entire network is focused on the fluctuating K-line chart, where both bulls and bears are confronting the 'powder keg' formed by 670 million short positions and 1.247 billion long positions: if the price stabilizes above $4000, the short positions will be blown away; once it breaks below $3800, the long positions will face massive liquidation.
The actions of the whales are increasingly frantic: on one hand, an anonymous big player is throwing 49 million dollars' worth of ETH onto exchanges, seemingly wanting to pull out urgently; on the other hand, there are institutions buying 40.5 million dollars of it off-exchange, and even a company applying for 5 billion in financing, eagerly waiting to bottom fish. Retail investors are caught in the middle, unsure of how to act—chasing the rise for fear of becoming a bag holder, while shorting out of fear of missing the trend. Technical analysts are closely watching the MACD death cross and the tug-of-war signal at RSI 60, while fundamental analysts are betting on continuous inflow of ETF funds and a 92.7% probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September.
Historical data shows that the probability of breaking through $4000 has risen to 85%. The market first aims for $4200 to digest trapped positions, then targets $4800, and even $5500. But don't forget, when similar selling pressure emerged last December, ETH directly halved by 66%. Currently, the derivative positions have soared to a historical peak of 51.3 billion, with daily liquidation amounting to 260 million, of which 90% are short 'remains'—this position will either explode into a sea of stars or blow through the retail investors' bottom line.
Individuals prefer the former; if it can break through $4877, ETH may soar, becoming a brilliant new star! This bull market may indeed rely on it to lead the way!
