On-chain analytics from Glassnode reveal that 70% of Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) are currently in profit despite a recent Bitcoin price pull-back from mid-July highs around $123,100 to levels near $115,000. These short-term holders are defined as investors who acquired Bitcoin within roughly the last 155 days.
Key insights from the Glassnode report and market analysis:
STHs remain mostly profitable with 70% holding coins above their acquisition cost, indicating solid resilience in this group despite sideways market action and recent minor corrections.
The spent volume of profitable short-term holders (the proportion of recently bought coins that have been sold for profit) has cooled to around 45%, which is below the neutral 50% threshold. This suggests profit-taking has slowed, and many recent investors are choosing to hold rather than sell immediately amid current price consolidation.
Glassnode notes the market is in a relatively balanced state, with sell pressure from short-term holders currently low but with vulnerability if prices drop deeper into loss territory (below short-term holder cost basis). A more severe correction could erode this profitability, potentially shaking out weaker holders and increasing sell pressure.
The Bitcoin price needs to decisively break above approximately $116,900 (the local top buyers' average cost basis) to regain upward momentum. Failure to hold above this level could raise the risk of a deeper correction toward about $110,000, putting greater stress on short-term holders.
Despite some recent profit-taking by large Bitcoin whales (with over $44 million booked in profits recently), long-term holders remain steady, and the overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with analysts projecting potential price targets between $160K and $250K by year-end 2025.
In summary, while most Bitcoin short-term holders are still profitable, the potential for another sell-off remains tied to price action. If Bitcoin sustains above the key resistance level around $116,900, these holders may maintain confidence, contributing to market stability. Conversely, a deeper pullback into loss territory for short-term holders could trigger increased selling and volatility.
This nuanced dynamic reflects a typical mid-cycle consolidation phase seen in prior bull markets, where weak hands may capitulate but stronger holders underpin upward trends as accumulation continues.
