Introduction:
On the evening of August 8, 2025, Golden Finance hosted a live discussion on Twitter Space titled '2025 All in Ethereum? Where is the True Engine for Ethereum's Rise?' ETH strongly broke through the $3900 mark that day, attracting widespread market attention. The program invited traders Sanmu, Wang Buai, Kiki, and the last-minute addition Qie Ge to comprehensively analyze the future trends of Ethereum from the perspectives of cyclical trends, corporate asset allocation, stablecoin-driven value reassessment, and odds and win rate evaluation.
1. Market Background and Opening
Recently, Ethereum not only stabilized within the $3300–$3900 fluctuation range but also broke through 0.33 in the ETH/BTC exchange rate, showing significant strength relative to Bitcoin. Will 2025 be a great year for Ethereum? Where is its true engine for rising?
Wang Buai: Short-term resistance is significant; pay attention to the September rate cut window.
Wang Buai first analyzed the ETH trend from a short-, medium-, and long-term perspective: 'ETH is currently at a strong resistance level. It has approached $4000 three times in March, May, and December 2024 but has not broken through. The previous peak was at $4800. Current bulls are not weak, but there’s no explosive volume. Liquidity decreases on weekends, making it hard to break through in the coming days, but if a rate cut happens in September, it might push towards $4500 or even the last peak.'
She emphasized the importance of the $4000 mark, believing that there may be a short-term fluctuation followed by a potential breakthrough of key resistance with the help of macro-positive factors.
Sanmu: Exchange Rate Reversal is a Signal of an Independent Market
Sanmu pointed out the ETH/BTC exchange rate, indicating that Ethereum has ended a three-year decline relative to Bitcoin and showed signs of reversal in April and May of this year.
The exchange rate has risen for the first time after three years of consecutive declines, and the trend is healthy. As long as Bitcoin does not experience a deep correction, Ethereum is likely to enter an independent bullish market. $4000–$4100 is the core evaluation price; once broken, the psychological pressure of $4800 may not constitute substantial selling pressure.
He also emphasized that the current rising phase of ETH has only gone through a 'two-stage' process, and there is still space for trend continuation.
2. Corporate Asset Allocation: From Bitcoin Replication to Ethereum?
In the second half of this year, more and more listed companies have begun to increase their holdings of ETH, triggering market associations with the replication effect of 'MicroStrategy for Bitcoin.'
Sanmu: ETH has a better cost-performance ratio.
He believes that against the backdrop of U.S. companies seeking to allocate crypto assets, ETH has three major advantages:
1. Price is lower than BTC, providing a better cost-performance ratio;
2. Can be staked for interest, classified as a 'yield-bearing asset';
3. Running stability and high security.
In a situation where there are very few optional targets, ETH is the most reliable choice.
Wang Buai: Comparing to Russia's Increase in Silver Holdings
Wang Buai provided a macro analogy:
Gold is the best asset to hedge against the depreciation of the dollar, but its price is already high. Russia has recently begun to classify silver as a strategic reserve because it is cheap and has industrial value. In the eyes of institutions, ETH is like silver—Bitcoin is too expensive, while ETH is low in price and has great potential. Getting in early may yield more returns.
He also proposed the 'institutional repositioning theory,' suggesting that after BTC's speculative space is limited, funds shift to ETH for a new round of rally.
3. Stablecoins and Value Re-evaluation
Ethereum's 'Apple Store' moment? Stablecoins have become a killer application for the Ethereum network. Will it become a key pivot in the ETH valuation system?
Sanmu: From PVP to Value Driven
He pointed out that market hotspots have shifted from early PVP competitions (such as meme coins and short-term trades) to projects with real applications:
The trends of RWA, DeFi projects, and national bonds on the blockchain are becoming apparent. The reason stablecoins are widely choosing Ethereum is that it is the most stable and secure public chain infrastructure.
Wang Buai: L2 and Compliance Drive Implementation
Wang Buai added that L2 technology has matured and has clear compliance advantages, especially Coinbase's Base chain, which could carry a significant amount of USD stablecoin business: 'Once stablecoins are fully permitted, ETH's role will be like the Apple Store, becoming an entry point for global financial infrastructure, and its price is currently undervalued.'
4. Odds and Winning Rate: What Does Heavy Positioning Mean at This Time?
She used the example of trading profit-loss ratios:
Currently, ETH is less than 5% away from this round's peak and about 24% from the historical high, with clear pressure above, not meeting the ideal trading conditions of having support below and no pressure above. I will pay attention to cash flow projects strongly correlated with ETH, such as UNI, AAVE, etc., as their potential for appreciation is greater.
Sanmu: Holdable, add positions on breakthrough.
If you're looking for immediate profits in the short term, it might be better to wait for a breakout at $4100 to enter. Long-term holders only need to ensure it doesn’t fall below $3500 for the trend to remain healthy.
Qie Ge: Cautiously Optimistic from a Macro Perspective
1. Macro policies: Rate cut expectations have been reflected; beware of excessive optimism.
Qie Ge pointed out that recent market sentiment partly stems from high expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but investors should not overlook the lag in transmission and early pricing.
Many people consider interest rate cuts as direct benefits; however, such macro policies are often priced in by the market before implementation. Changes in the global economy, especially U.S. monetary policy, are important, but benefits may not first materialize in the crypto circle. Institutional guidance and media information can amplify emotions, but we need to remain calm.
He reminded that short-term stimuli such as pension policies and ETF inflows are worth paying attention to, but one should not deduce an unconditional one-sided upward logic from them.
2. The double-edged sword of mainnet liquidity and ETFs.
Qie Ge particularly emphasized the current liquidity situation of the Ethereum mainnet:
Currently, the NFT market on the ETH mainnet is not active enough, the number of new smart contracts is limited, Gas fees are high, and the actual on-chain trading activity is not high. Although ETFs bring inflows, do not overlook a risk—new spot ETFs can be staked, which may draw away liquidity from the mainnet.
He compared this situation with Bitcoin, believing that BTC's market share and liquidity are harder to erode, while ETH has more structural variables.
3. Technical Transformation: Testing After Transitioning from POW to POS
Looking back at history, Qie Ge reminded everyone to pay attention to changes in ETH's consensus mechanism:
In 2021, when ETH reached its peak of $4800, it was still in a complete POW model, relying on miners to maintain the network similarly to BTC. Now it’s POS, and security, decentralization, and node participation will all affect market confidence. The mainnet and L2 outages occur from time to time; although upgrades are in progress, this requires time for validation.
5. Conclusion
From cyclical judgment, corporate increase logic, stablecoin-driven value reassessment, to weighing odds and winning rates, the guests provided multidimensional analyses.
Whether it's Wang Buai's emphasis on macro analogies and fund repositioning, Sanmu's focus on exchange rate reversals and independent market signals, or Qie Ge's reminders about macro policies and technological upgrades, all provide investors with a framework for thought.
The future potential of Ethereum is enormous, but controlling pace and position is equally important.
Live replay link: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1ypKdZqMwXnJW
Note: This article is based on the guests' live discussion and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; decisions should be made with caution.
