The probability of XRP ETF approval has surged to 88% after the lawsuit between the SEC and Ripple concluded, creating legal clarity and improving market sentiment. Although SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw continues to vote against it – which had previously reduced the probability to 65% – Bloomberg experts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart still maintain their forecast at 95%, as she is the only dissenting member and is outnumbered by the majority.
The suspension of the lawsuit has increased the prediction rate on Polymarket from 71% to 87%, while also pushing the price of XRP up by 11.4% right after the news that both sides withdrew their appeal. Legal clarity is expected to pave the way for institutional cash flow, increase liquidity, and boost the value of XRP if the ETF is approved.