The price is sticking to the upper Bollinger Band, yet standing above the 'value anchor' near 0.80, bulls use a 1.7 times buy wall to turn 0.63 into a springboard, the next stop directly targets the vacuum area at 0.85.
[Key Intervals and Volume Distribution]
1. Value Anchoring Area: POC 0.7977 (largest transaction in the past two weeks), current price still has 26% space away from it, with little selling pressure above.
2. High Transaction Volume Area (HVN): 0.7839–0.8184 forms a 'thick top', bulls have rotated here in the past, and pulling back to this area easily gains support.
3. Low Transaction Volume Gaps (LVN): 0.6427–0.6565 and 0.8459–0.8500, two segments of transaction voids, price tends to pass through quickly.
4. 70% Transaction Volume Coverage Area: 0.6014–0.8322, current price is at the 95% percentile of the range, short-term is already overbought, but long-term is still at a low level.
[Momentum Validation]
• POC Area Up/Down = 57:43, slightly bullish; 0.78–0.82 Area Up/Down = 66:34, dominated by bulls.
• Nearly 24h contract positions +3.57%, long-short ratio increased from 2.33 to 2.39, capital moderately increased, no explosive volume seen, main force still laying out.
[Bollinger Bands & Moving Averages]
• 1h Bollinger Band opening upwards, price is sticking to the upper band at 95.9%; MA200 is at 0.6058, divergence at 4.2%, short-term overheated, probability of pulling back to MA200 is increasing.
• RSI 79.7, entering the high-level dull area, suggesting a possible pullback at any time due to news.
[Order Book Anomalies]
• Buy wall at 55k USDT stacked at 0.6264–0.6201, sell wall only 37k USDT; there are 94k sell orders from a giant whale at 3.0, but 375% away from the current price, no substantial resistance in the short term.
[Market Cycle Judgment]
The daily line is still at the lower edge of the descending channel since August 2024, and the weekly level is forming a bottom; in the short term regarded as 'oversold rebound mid-stage', if it stabilizes above 0.85 it will upgrade to 'weekly level reversal'.
[Trading Strategy]
A. Aggressive Long: Enter at 0.628–0.632 on pullback to the upper edge of LVN, stop loss at 0.620 (below HVN 0.6186 outside 0.5×ATR), target at 0.780 (next HVN), risk-reward ratio 3.4:1.
B. Conservative Long: Wait for 0.605–0.610 to test MA200 + lower edge of the range VAL, stop loss at 0.598, target at 0.7977 (POC), risk-reward ratio 4:1.
C. Conservative Short: If 1h close falls below 0.620 and Down Volume > 55%, go short, stop loss at 0.628, target at 0.601, risk-reward ratio 2.3:1.
[Risk Warning]
• Key Failure: Losing 0.605 will damage the rebound structure, long positions must stop loss immediately.
• Sudden Events: Macroeconomic bearish news or contract liquidation chain on-chain fluctuations may instantly break through LVN.
[LP Market Making Suggestions]
Place both buy and sell LP in the 0.605–0.780 range, earning 0.05% fee rate; this range covers 70% of transactions and includes MA200 and POC, high capital efficiency, controllable slippage.
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